The world is now 2-degrees hotter. What does it mean?
The average global temperature crossed a threshold of two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels for the first time on Friday. The European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) noted that Friday's temperature was also 1.17 degrees above normal when compared to a 30-year reference period from 1991 to 2020. Just two months ago, the temperature had risen to 1.5 degrees Celsius beyond pre-industrial levels. Experts have cautioned that we're on track for a three-degree Celsius increase by the century's end.
Why does this story matter?
In 2015, world leaders signed the Paris Agreement, agreeing to work to limit global temperatures to 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels. Friday's temperature rise has posed a question to their commitment and efforts. Just last week, United States (US) President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping vowed to accelerate efforts to reduce methane and carbon dioxide emissions. Global leaders are set to meet on November 30 in Dubai for the 2023 United Nations Climate Change Conference.
2023 on track to become hottest year ever
The first-ever two-degree Celsius increase is a stark reminder of the earth's constant temperature rise but not a reason to lose hope. Climate scientists from the European Union warned that 2023 is on track to become the hottest year in recorded history. In July, almost half of the US was under heat advisories. Rising temperatures have also led to forest fires in Australia, Europe, and North America. At the poles, climate change is amplified, melting ice at a never-seen-before rate.
Factors contributing to sudden spike in global warming
This 2023 temperature surge is due to several factors, such as climate change, a powerful El Niño, and Antarctic sea ice not recovering post-winter. Other events, like heightened solar activity and smaller factors like the aftermath of Tonga's volcanic eruption, have also made conditions worse. Climate change is the main culprit, with human activities causing about 1.2 degrees Celsius of warming.
El Niño and its impact on global temperatures
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation climate cycle in the Pacific has the most significant natural impact on climate since the Pacific Ocean covers 30% of Earth's surface. During an El Niño phase, sea temperatures near South America rise, increasing global average temperatures. The current El Niño is predicted to peak soon and could last through 2024, possibly raising global temperatures by around 0.15°C.
Antarctic sea, solar activity and others leading to hotter earth
Antarctic sea ice's inability to bounce back leads to dark ocean waters absorbing, instead of reflecting, more heat. Increased solar activity contributes a small amount of extra heat, around 0.05°C. The Tonga volcanic eruption in January 2022 added roughly 0.035°C for about five years due to its underwater location, causing water vapor greenhouse gas emissions. Reduced aerosol pollution, like the 2020 low-sulfur fuel mandate for international shipping, may have contributed an estimated 0.05°C of warming by 2050.
