Next 5 years to be hottest ever recorded: UN
The United Nations (UN)'s World Meteorological Organization (WMO) on Wednesday said that it is nearly certain that 2023 to 2027 will be the hottest five-year period ever recorded. The WMO said, "There is a 98% likelihood that at least one of the next five years, and the five-year period as a whole, will be the warmest on record (since 1850)."
Why does this story matter?
Global warming is a burning issue, and while studies show that developed countries contribute the most to climate change, the Global South bears its brunt disproportionately. The warning comes as a foreboding to prepare for the deepening crises of food, water, health, and the environment. Greenhouse gases, which are at an all-time high, coupled with El Nino, have fuelled the rise in global temperatures.
Hottest 8 years ever recorded from 2015-22
In 2022, the global mean temperature was 1.15 degrees Celsius above the average temperature level recorded between 1850 and 1900. The benchmark for the 2015 Paris Agreement was kept at 2 degrees Celsius above the 1850-1900 average. However, while countries agreed to cap global warming at well below the benchmark, the following period from 2015 to 2022 became the hottest eight years ever recorded.
Annual surface temperatures to rise by 1.5 degrees Celsius
After the hottest eight years ever, the global mercury is set to soar even further for 2023-2027. There is a 66% chance that at least one of these years will see annual global surface temperatures exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. The range of the exceeding surface temperatures has been forecasted between 1.1 to 1.8 degrees Celsius for each of these years.
Not permanent rise, but frequency will keep increasing
WMO chief Petteri Taalas explained this doesn't mean the temperatures around the world would permanently cross the Paris Agreement benchmark, but it warns about a temporary shift with increasing frequency. An El Nino is expected to form in the coming months, which is a phenomenon involving the warming of surface temperatures in the central and equatorial Pacific Ocean occurring every two to seven years.
El Nino forming in coming months
While El Nino hikes temperatures, La Nina is a counteracting weather phenomenon and has a cooling effect. The WMO predicted the chances of El Nino forming at the end of July were 60%, while the same stood at 80% for the end of September. Generally, temperatures rise the year following El Nino, which would be 2024 in this case.
