Is Putin losing control of his government: Everything to know
Days after a major "coup" attempt by Wagner Group on Russian President Vladimir Putin's government was averted, fissures have reportedly started emerging in his administration. According to Bloomberg, Putin has been trying hard for nearly a week to reassure people through public events and televised addresses. However, doubts about his control among the government and business elite are spreading fast.
Why does this story matter?
The mercenary group Wagner launched a rebellion last Saturday, claiming to have captured military bases in Russia, while Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin accused the Kremlin of missile attacks against his forces. However, following an agreement, the group eventually ended the revolt. Wagner is a private mercenary army that is reported to have played a crucial role in Russia's takeover of Bakhmut in Ukraine.
Demands for Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu's removal become louder
The Russian Defense Ministry is currently marred by infighting after Putin ordered strict action against those who supported Prigozhin during the rebellion, according to Bloomberg. A top general, Sergei Surovikin, has also reportedly been detained for questioning. Meanwhile, calls for Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu's ouster have intensified. Prigozhin has publicly criticized Shoigu, Putin's ally, for his failure during the Russia-Ukraine crisis.
Rebellion by Wagner Group created 'power vacuum'
In response to the major developments in Russia, Sergei Markov, a political analyst close to the Kremlin, stated, "A massive investigation has begun. All the generals and officers who were in contact with...Wagner will be questioned." He also stated that an investigation into Shoigu's close allies was ongoing. Another insider claimed that a "power vacuum" had been created following the Prigozhin-led group's uprising.
Weaker Putin poses 'greater danger': EU Foreign Policy chief
According to European Union (EU) Foreign Policy Chief Josep Borrell, it is apparent the crisis has left Putin weakened, which would pose a "greater danger." Western leaders believed Putin's power had diminished and escalation of the Russia-Ukraine war was unlikely. Meanwhile, Ukraine's allies were pushing for tougher guarantees for its future membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) at its summit next month.
Putin's rule develops cracks due to prolonged Ukraine war
Livia Paggi, the managing director and head of political risk at JS Held consultancy, said the United States views the Wagner's mutiny as a victory. She said the prolonged war in Ukraine had shown cracks in Putin's rule. "What isn't fully understood is what kind of chaos would follow if it were actually to happen," she said, referring to the possibility of regime change.
No big reshuffle expected as Putin hesitant to lose loyalists
Some Western-allied officials suggested that, despite Putin's weak position, no big shakeups or reshuffles, which might put Shoigu and Russia's military chief, General Valery Gerasimov, in jeopardy, are likely. Under duress, Putin is unlikely hesitant to lose old loyalists, they said. "The loss of face for all the players involved hasn't been overcome," Mikhail Vinogradov, Head of the St. Petersburg Politics Foundation, told Bloomberg.
Russian President expresses optimism at business forum meet
Meanwhile, at a business forum meeting, the Russian president recently also expressed optimism. "There's a feeling of confidence that no matter what difficulties arise, we will overcome them all calmly, rhythmically, and moving forward," he said, after a standing ovation from the guests.
Putin continues to enjoy public support, elite in doubt
Despite the mutiny, support for President Putin remained stable, as per a recent opinion poll. It, however, found that a majority of Russians now also support peace negotiations to resolve the conflict in Ukraine. Among the elite, the mutiny by a longstanding Putin ally has fanned worries about his leadership, but the latter has bound government and corporate elites to him amid international sanctions.
