How Trump's 'America-First' policy could impact US-India ties
What's the story
Donald Trump's re-election as the United States President has reignited conversations about the future of US-India ties, especially in the domains of trade and immigration. While the two leaders call each other old friends, Trump had called India a "tariff king" and bashed its trade practices during his first term. He also promised to impose "reciprocal" tariffs on countries with trade surpluses with the US, a move that could greatly affect India's economy.
Economic impact
Trade surplus and manufacturing initiatives under scrutiny
Trump's emphasis on reviving American manufacturing could also conflict with PM Narendra Modi's "Make in India" scheme. The program has lured global tech giants such as Apple to establish production units in India. Delhi-based think tank Ananta Aspen Centre CEO Indrani Bagchi emphasized these concerns, telling AFP, "If manufacturing indeed moves back to the US, what does that mean for countries that have a trade surplus with America?"
Others
Many to be hit if Trump bring jobs back onshore
Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) and Infosys, two of India's largest IT businesses, have also grown into corporate behemoths by allowing their American counterparts to outsource their information technology needs to a lower-cost workforce. According to Ashok Malik of business consultancy The Asia Group, everyone could suffer if Trump follows through on his promise to bring employment back onshore and ignite a "tariff war."
Migration concerns
Immigration policies and diplomatic tensions
Another policy that could sour the milk between the countries is Trump's immigration policy. India is a major source of legal migration to the US. However, in the last few years, illegal crossings by Indians at Canadian and Mexican borders have increased. Trump's hardline on illegal immigration could create a diplomatic row if mass deportations take place. Bagchi warned of a potential "PR disaster if Indians are picked up and mass deported."
Strategic alliances
US-India strategic partnerships amidst policy shifts
Under the Modi government, India has also strengthened its relationship with the US through defense, technology, and semiconductor production partnerships. India is also a member of the Quad alliance with the US, Australia, and Japan to counter China's influence in Asia-Pacific. However, Professor Harsh V Pant of King's College London told AFP that Trump's "unpredictability" casts question on the future of ever-closer cooperation.