US elections: Harris, Trump neck-and-neck, shows new poll
A recent Roanoke College poll has said that there is a close competition between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump among likely voters in Virginia. The survey was conducted prior to this week's Democratic National Convention. It shows Harris slightly ahead with 47% support, compared to Trump's 44%. However, this lead falls within the poll's margin of error of +-4.5% points.
Harris maintains lead even with additional candidates
When other candidates are factored into the equation, Harris continues to hold a slight edge over Trump, leading 45% to 42%. The poll also shows that an additional 13% of voters support other candidates. This includes 6% for Robert F Kennedy Jr and 2% for Cornel West. Harry Wilson, a senior political analyst for the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research, has commented on these findings.
Transition from Biden to Harris impacts voter sentiment
Wilson noted that the transition from President Joe Biden to Harris has had an impact, albeit not as significant as expected. Previously, Biden was in a similar position against Trump, with a marginal lead in May before his exit from the race. In the Senate race, Democratic Senator Tim Kaine holds a commanding lead with 49% support against Republican challenger Hung Cao's 38%.
Virginia remains a competitive battleground
Republicans, led by Governor Glenn Youngkin, argue that Virginia remains a competitive battleground. This is despite Trump's previous losses in the state by five points in 2016 and 10 points in 2020. On a national scale, Harris holds a slight advantage over Trump. This is an improvement over Biden's performance. The poll indicates that President Biden's approval ratings in Virginia remain low with only 37% of voters viewing him favorably and 61% unfavorably.
Harris and Trump's approval ratings in Virginia
Harris fares somewhat better than Biden, though she remains a net negative with 43% favorable and 53% unfavorable. Trump's ratings are between the two, with 40% favorable and 57% unfavorable. Both parties' vice-presidential candidates also face negative ratings. Democratic Governor Tim Walz is at 34% favorable and 51% unfavorable, while GOP Senator JD Vance is at 32% favorable and 55% unfavorable.
Polarization, dissatisfaction among voters
The poll indicates a polarized electorate, with 51% of voters viewing Trump as a "threat to democracy" and 47% expressing similar concerns about the process leading to Harris's nomination. Dissatisfaction was also indicated toward Walz and Vance, reflecting a broader sense of discontent. Wilson highlighted the increasing division along party lines. He also noted that the reduced support for third parties could impact the election results.
