India to remain most populous nation even by 2100: UN
India, which surpassed China as the world's most populous country last year, is expected to retain this status until 2100, according to the United Nations's World Population Prospects 2024 report. The report forecasts India's population peaking at approximately 1.7 billion in the early 2060s before experiencing a 12% decline. However, even with this decrease, India will continue to be the world's most populous country throughout the century.
Global population to peak mid-century, then decline
The global population is projected to continue growing for the next 50-60 years, peaking at around 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s, up from 8.2 billion in 2024. After reaching this peak, a gradual decline is expected, with the global population falling to approximately 10.2 billion by century's end. "India is currently the largest country in the world in terms of population and it's projected to stay so throughout the century," said Clare Menozzi, Senior Population Affairs Officer at UN DESA.
China's population expected to halve by 2100
Meanwhile, China's population, currently at 1.41 billion in 2024, is predicted to decrease to 1.21 billion by 2054 and further decline to 633 million by the end of the century. This significant reduction is linked to China's sustained low fertility rate, averaging one birth per woman over a lifetime. "It really relates to the level of fertility that's observed currently in China," explained John Wilmoth, Director of the Population Division at UN DESA.
Low fertility levels to drive China's population decline
"Given that you need 2.1 births to maintain the current population without migration...any fertility level if it's below two, or especially below 1.8 or below 1.5, you're really getting into low levels of fertility and it produces a long run decline that's quite significant," Wilmoth further elaborated. In January, Beijing announced that the birth rate had dropped to 6.39 per 1,000 people, on par with other advanced East Asian countries such as Japan and South Korea.
