Decoding WTC final scenarios featuring India, Australia and Sri Lanka
South Africa booked their place in the World Test Championship (WTC) final after a nail-biting two-wicket win over Pakistan in Centurion. This leaves one spot vacant with India, Australia, and Sri Lanka still in contention. The qualification scenarios for the three teams are a bit tricky and depend on how they perform in the coming matches. Here are the details.
India's path to WTC final: A closer look
India own a 55.89% chance of qualifying for the WTC final. They need to win both their remaining Tests in Melbourne and Sydney to seal their spot. As per ESPNcricinfo, this would take their final score to 60.53%, ahead of Australia's 57.02% (even if Australia win their upcoming two-Test series against Sri Lanka 2-0).
India's qualification scenarios
If India win one and draw one of their remaining Tests, they will end up with 57.02%. In this case, they could lose the second spot to Australia, who could end up with 58.77% if they win both Tests in Sri Lanka. But for India to qualify with 57.02%, Australia would have to score no more than 16 points in their Sri Lanka series (win and draw).
Australia's road to WTC final: A closer look
Australia now have a PCT of 58.89%. They are the favorites to reach the final. If they win the Melbourne and Sydney Tests against India, they will seal their spot in the final, ending on 57.02%, even if they lose 2-0 in Sri Lanka later. A win and a draw against India would still keep them ahead of India but could allow Sri Lanka to leapfrog them with a clean sweep.
Sri Lanka's chances in WTC final
Sri Lanka also have an outside chance. Their PCT reads 45.45%. Their highest possible score could be 53.85%, which can only be achieved if they beat Australia 2-0 in the upcoming series. For this score to be enough for a second-place finish, one of the two things should happen in the remaining Border-Gavaskar Trophy Tests: both Melbourne and Sydney Tests end in draws or Australia wins one of the two home Tests and draws the other.
