World Test Championship: Decoding teams in the race for final
The race for the ICC World Test Championship (WTC) final is heating up with five teams still in contention and no team guaranteed a top two spot. With 18 Tests remaining in this cycle, the competition remains wide open. India's 0-3 series loss to New Zealand have put their chances of reaching the WTC final at Lord's next June in jeopardy. To secure a top two finish, India now need to defeat Australia 4-0 Down Under.
India's path to WTC final depends on other teams' performance
As per ESPNcricinfo, a 4-0 win over Australia would take India's points to 65.79%, just above New Zealand's maximum of 64.29% if they whitewash England 3-0 at home. India would then be second on the points table, behind South Africa who could reach a maximum of 69.44% with two home wins against Sri Lanka and Pakistan. But these scenarios assume all other teams maximize points. If not, India could qualify with fewer points depending on results.
New Zealand's surprising victories keep WTC hopes alive
New Zealand's surprise 3-0 series win against India have kept their WTC final dreams alive. If they win all three of their remaining Tests against England at home, they will finish with 64.29%. While that doesn't guarantee qualification, it keeps them in the race. A loss in one of these Tests would bring their percentage down to 57.14%, which could still be enough depending on other results.
South Africa's favorable schedule could boost WTC chances
With a favorable schedule of home Tests against Sri Lanka and Pakistan, South Africa are a strong contender in the WTC race. If they win all four of their remaining Tests, they will end with 69.44%, a score only Australia can surpass. Three wins and a draw would leave them at 63.89%, while three victories and one loss would slightly lower their percentage to 61.11%.
Australia's WTC final chances boosted by India's losses
Australia's chances of making it to the WTC final have improved due to India's defeats against New Zealand. A 3-2 series win against India would keep Australia ahead even if they lose both Tests in Sri Lanka. However, to qualify without depending on other results, Australia need five wins from their seven remaining matches. This scenario highlights the high stakes and unpredictability of the current WTC cycle.
Sri Lanka's strong push toward top-two finish in WTC
Sri Lanka have made a big push toward a top-two finish in this WTC cycle, courtesy full 24 points from their last two Tests. Their four remaining Tests are against South Africa and Australia, who are also in contention for the final. If they win all these matches and gain another 48 points, they will finish on 69.23% and seal a final berth irrespective of other results.
India only side to reach successive finals
India had earlier reached the finals of the 2019-21 and 2021-23 WTC cycle, being the only team to do so. However, India lost both finals. New Zealand won the inaugural edition whereas Australia sealed the deal next time around.
