Scientists created fake asteroid. It destroyed New York City
Scientists at NASA are currently racking their brains to solve an asteroid impact problem. The good news is that it's just a simulation. That bad news is that they failed. So, does that mean that we are all about to be blown to smithereens in case the Earth decided to pull a space rock into its atmosphere? Read on to find out more.
'Planetary defense exercises' are conducted biennially
At the International Academy of Astronautics' Planetary Defense Conference, held recently in College Park, Maryland, a discussion on possible cosmic threats to Earth was held. Scientists discussed, in great detail, a hypothetical situation where they discover an asteroid in March 2019, dubbed 2019 PDC, which is 600 feet wide and has a 1% chance of striking Earth. The exercise is conducted biennially.
In previous exercises, French Riviera, Dhaka were destroyed
In 2013, the French Riviera was destroyed and in 2015, it was Dhaka. In 2017, they managed to save Tokyo. This year, it was New York and the city was left in ruins. Through the simulated planetary defense exercise, NASA plays out the worst-case scenario.
How does the team plan on dealing with an asteroid?
After it's spotted, the exercise leads to launching a recon spacecraft to orbit and study the asteroid. The team would attempt to deflect it by nukes or smashing a spacecraft into it. The logistics come next (e.g., how to nuke an asteroid but keep it in one piece?). The last thing we need in an asteroid crisis is debris raining down on Earth.
Here is what happened in the simulation
However, despite this being the seventh tabletop exercise, the team ran into problems. As the months passed, the possibility of asteroid collision rose to 10% and eventually to 100%. After launching a probe to assess the space-rock, the team learned that the asteroid is headed straight to Denver, US. So, the United States, Europe, Russia, China, and Japan collaborate to change its trajectory.
Political disagreements lead to failure, New York under danger
The space powers build six "kinetic impactors" to hit the asteroid and deflect it. The asteroid is to hit around August 2024. Three impactors even managed to hit the asteroid, but a 60m chunk breaks off and heads towards New York. The team attempts to nuke it but fails due to political disagreements. Now the asteroid is hurtling at New York at 69,000 kmph.
Asteroid has an 'unsurvivable' radius of 15 kms
The asteroid explodes about 15 kms above Central Park and the blast is about 1,000 times the energy of the nuclear bomb dropped on Hiroshima. The asteroid has a 15 kms "unsurvivable" radius and would basically level New York City. Windows will shatter as far away as 45 kms from the impact site and the damage would extend up to 68 kms.
Simulations help scientists brace for real threats
Of course, 2019 PDC is just fictional, designed by Paul Chodas, the manager of NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies. But that doesn't mean the threat isn't real. Such simulations help the planetary defense community to prepare for real threats. But since scientists are clearly still struggling, let's hope we don't have an asteroid headed toward us until they figure it out.
