Global warming will soon breach crucial limit for first time
Between 2023 and 2027, researchers predict that there is a 66% chance that we will breach the key 1.5-degrees Celsius global warming limit, for the first time in human history. What's further adding to the likelihood of breaking this threshold limit is increasing carbon emissions due to human activities and the El Nino weather event expected to occur in the coming months.
Why does this story matter?
For years, scientists believed that if global warming rates came close to 2-degrees Celsius, that would be dangerous for the world. However, that limit was revised to 1.5-degrees Celsius in 2018. This threshold limit has been central to several climate change talks with countries agreeing to "pursue efforts" to curb the increase of global temperature to 1.5-degrees Celsius under the 2015 Paris agreement.
There was 20% chance of breaking the limit in 2020
Since 2020, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), a part of the United Nations (UN), has been predicting the chances of the world surpassing the 1.5-degrees Celsius limit in any year. At that time, WMO estimated there was a 20% chance of breaching the threshold in the following five years. By 2022, the chance shot up to 50% and has now risen to 66%.
Increasing carbon emissions and El Nino are the key reasons
There are two major elements driving the world closer to the threshold. One is the rising level of carbon emissions from human activities, which have been continually increasing in spite of recording a fall in the pandemic. The next is El Nino, a periodic weather phenomenon, expected to take place in the next few months. It can affect climate patterns across the globe.
El Nino is expected to cause record high global temperatures
The El Nino weather event is usually linked with higher global temperatures. The heating that the event would bring about to the surface of the Pacific Ocean is expected to cause the global temperature to rise to a record high temperature next year. However, as of now, scientists are still uncertain about the onset and the impact of the event.
'We are close to breaching the 1.5C global warming limit'
"We really are now within reach of a temporary exceedance of 1.5C for the annual mean temperature, and that's the first time in human history we've been that close," said Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasts at the UK's Met Office.
What would happen if the limit is breached?
If we shoot past the 1.5-degrees Celsius limit every year for the next decade or two, the impacts of warming would be far too much. The effects would include longer heatwaves, more violent storms, and wildfires. Luckily, scientists say we still have time to cut down on global warming and that has to be done by bringing a significant reduction in carbon emissions.
