New study warns against lifting lockdown before COVID-19 vaccine arrives
The coronavirus pandemic has compelled many countries to impose strict lockdowns, including India. However, with the lockdowns impacting economies and throwing normal life out of gear, one of the questions that has been asked quite often is: When are these restrictions going to be lifted? A study has now warned that lockdowns should only be lifted once a coronavirus vaccine is found.
Study conducted by researchers in Hong Kong
The study conducted by researchers based in Hong Kong was published in The Lancet medical journal on Wednesday. The researchers monitored the virus' instantaneous reproduction number—the average number of people an infected person can transmit the virus to—in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Wenzhou, and the 10 badly-hit Chinese provinces. They also monitored the confirmed case-fatality risk in the four cities and all 31 Chinese provinces.
Here's what the researchers found
The study found that the reproduction number fell below one after January 23, when lockdown measures were implemented. Notably, the reproduction number for the novel coronavirus has been estimated between two-three. The study also showed that the death rate in Hubei (approximately 6%)—home to Wuhan city, where the outbreak began—was five times higher than regions outside of the province (approximately 1%).
Relaxing lockdown could risk second wave of COVID-19 transmission: Study
A key finding of the study is that relaxing lockdown measures could present the risk of a second wave of COVID-19 (Coronavirus Disease 2019) transmission through an increase in imported cases, along with viral transmissibility that might rebound with the gradual resumption of economic activities.
'Without herd immunity against COVID-19, cases could resurge'
University of Hong Kong Professor Joseph T Wu, who co-led the research, told The Guardian that implementing lockdown measures may not be enough. He said, "Without herd immunity against COVID-19, cases could easily resurge as businesses, factory operations, and schools gradually resume and increase social mixing, particularly given the increasing risk of imported cases from overseas as COVID-19 continues to spread globally."
What is herd immunity?
Herd immunity is indirect protection from a disease that arises when enough people in a community are immune to the disease; since an immune person cannot get infected and transmit the disease to others. This can happen by developing an immunity or getting vaccinated.
Allowing second wave of infections could cause health, economic losses
The research stated that allowing a second wave "would probably incur both marginally higher health and economic loss," in spite of any tough measures imposed to closely monitor and contain the disease. Wu said, "Proactively striking a balance between resuming economic activities and keeping the reproductive number below one is likely to be the best strategy until effective vaccines become widely available."
44 COVID-19 vaccines in the works
COVID-19 is a disease caused by a novel (new) coronavirus, called SARS-CoV-2, and hence, no vaccines have been developed yet. According to the World Health Organization, 42 candidate vaccines are in the pre-clinical stage, while two other vaccines are in Phase 1 of clinical evaluation. Experts say that even in an optimistic scenario, a COVID-19 vaccine could be 12-18 months away.
