Climate change may have influenced the emergence of coronavirus: Study
What's the story
Climate change may have influenced the outbreaks of the novel coronavirus as well as the year 2002-03 SARS pandemic virus, suggests a new study published in the journal Science of The Total Environment.
The study also says that the global crisis triggered by the release of greenhouse gases likely altered the distribution of bat species that carry these pathogens.
Information
Yunnan province, regions in Myanmar, Laos form a global hotspot
The study noted that the Southern Chinese Yunnan province and neighboring regions in Myanmar and Laos form a global hotspot of climate change-driven increase in bat richness.
Study
Link between climate change and emergence of SARS-CoV-1 and SARS-CoV-2
The scientists, including those from the University of Cambridge, said that this region coincides with the likely origin of bat-borne ancestors of the SARS-CoV-1 and SARS-CoV-2.
"This provides a possible mechanistic link between climate change and the emergence of the two viruses," the study noted.
In the study, scientists estimated how climate change has impacted global bat species' richness over the last century.
Bat species richness
Correlation between coronavirus family of viruses and bat species richness
Based on earlier studies, the researchers said, "The number of coronavirus family of viruses present in an area is strongly correlated with the local bat species richness."
They said, "As the species richness increases, there may be an increase in the probability that a coronavirus (CoV) with potentially harmful properties for human life is present, transmitted, or evolves in the area."
Other regions
Increase in bat species richness seen in many places
They said that regions around Central Africa and several scattered patches in Central and South America have also experienced an increase in bat species richness due to climate change-driven range shifts over the last century.
The scientists said in parts of Myanmar and Laos there has been an estimated climate change-driven increase of around 40 bat species.
Greenhouse gases
Greenhouse gas emissions may have contributed to the outbreaks
The scientists said, "This corresponds to a rise in the local number of bat-borne coronaviruses in order of nearly 100 viruses, given that each bat species carries about 2.67 CoVs on average."
They further stated that the possibility of greenhouse gas emissions may have been a contributing factor in the SARS-CoV-1 and SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks.
Information
Future research needed to confirm the suggested pattern
The scientists said, "We echo calls for decisive climate change mitigation, including as part of COVID-19 economic recovery programs." However, the scientists clarified that future research applying alternative models of vegetation change and species distribution is needed to confirm the pattern suggested in the study.
Information
Premature to conclude that climate change influenced COVID-19 emergence
However, Paul Valdes, Professor of Physical Geography at the University of Bristol said, "Habitat loss may have played a much larger role in biodiversity change than any small effect from climate change and this is not incorporated into the model."
Valdes believes it is premature to conclude from the available data that climate change influenced the emergence of the novel coronavirus.
Ecological hazard
Understanding the spillover process of SARS-CoV-2
Kate Jones, Professor of Ecology & Biodiversity at University College London said that the risk of new viruses jumping from animals is a complex interplay of ecological hazard and human exposure and vulnerability.
"It may turn out that increase in human populations, human movement, and degrading natural environments have a more important role to play in understanding the spillover process of SARS-CoV-2," she added.
Data
Data not ideal; evidence should be backed up further
Another scientist, Matthew Struebig, who is affiliated with the University of Kent and was not involved in the study, said that while the approach used in the analysis is interesting, the data on bat species distribution used in the analysis is patchy at best and not ideal.
He said that the evidence really should be backed up further.