196-foot asteroid could hit Earth in 2032—should we be worried?
What's the story
Astronomers have discovered a new asteroid, about the size of a football field (around 196-foot wide).
The space rock, dubbed 2024 YR4, could pose a threat to Earth with over 1% chance of hitting us on December 22, 2032.
Currently 43,450,000 kilometers away, it is estimated to come within around 106,200 kilometers of Earth that day.
The news has led the International Warning Asteroid Network (IAWN) to issue its first-ever Potential Asteroid Impact Notification for the asteroid in question.
Alert details
IAWN's alert aims to gather more data
The alert by IAWN is meant to rally the astronomical community. The idea is to collect as much data as possible about this near-Earth object (NEO).
"Hitting the 1% impact probability is a rare event indeed," said Tim Spahr, Manager of IAWN.
When the notification was issued on January 29, it had a 1.3% chance of hitting Earth in 2032, according to NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) Center for NEO Studies (CNEOS) and its European counterpart.
Probability update
Impact probability increased to 1.6%
The impact probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 has slightly increased to 1.6%, according to the latest data.
Paul Chodas, Director of CNEOS, stressed the urgency in refining calculations for its orbit and determining an impact.
He said larger telescopes are needed to observe this object but warned that by mid-April, "it will be too faint to be detected."
The next opportunity for study won't arise until 2028.
Prediction analogy
Chodas compares asteroid impact prediction to hurricane forecasting
Chodas likened the process of calculating an asteroid's impact probability to how the National Weather Service predicts a hurricane's landfall.
He said that as astronomers continue refining their orbital calculations for 2024 YR4, their odds of an Earth strike "could fall to zero almost any day now." But he also admitted that this is not the case yet.
Although the asteroid has less than a 2% chance of striking Earth, orbital uncertainties leave room for a potential direct hit.
Official stance
NASA's planetary defense officer urges perspective
Kelly Fast, acting Planetary Defense Officer for NASA's Planetary Defense Coordination Office, urged the public to keep things in perspective.
She noted the global attention this event has received given its importance but stressed that "there's still a very low probability that it would even impact the Earth at all."
This is a reminder of the unpredictability of such predictions and the need for further observation and study.
Impact assessment
2024 YR4's destructive potential and size
The asteroid 2024 YR4, while not large enough to cause extinction-level events, could inflict significant localized damage if it were to hit a populated area.
On the Torino Scale, which measures an asteroid's destructive potential, CNEOS currently ranks this asteroid at three on a scale from zero to 10.
Anne Virkki, a researcher from the University of Helsinki, stated that if it hit above a city, it "would definitely break windows."