Karnataka elections: First battle for the upcoming war in 2019
The unprecedented media space for Karnataka is anything but unreasonable, after all it's a fight between two national parties - one that's fighting an existential battle (Congress), while the other wanting to get done with its 'party of the north' tag (BJP). With less than 48 hours left for polls, we analyze why the BJP and the Congress are all in for this fight.
A trendsetter for upcoming elections
After Karnataka, the Congress and the BJP will face direct contests in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan assembly elections later this year. All three states are ruled by the BJP and Congress is looking forward to a positive start from Karnataka, while the BJP will try to reverse its by-poll defeats in MP, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. All, a kick-starter for 2019 elections.
Siddaramaiah: Biggest opportunity for Congress in Karnataka
Since 2014 Lok Sabha results, Siddaramaiah is probably the only leader to have befittingly responded to PM Modi's domineering attacks during campaigns. Calling PM Modi and Yogi Adityanath as "North Indian Imports," he has projected himself as the sole protector of Kannadiga interests. Besides, in Karnataka he holds more power than Rahul Gandhi, who knows this is a big opportunity for Congress's resurrection.
Karnataka loss would be no "moral victory" for Rahul Gandhi
Under Rahul's leadership, Congress has lost record number of elections and is reduced to only three states now. If Karnataka adds to that list, then Rahul's credibility as a national leader shall diminish, making 2019 elections a lost cause for party workers. But a win will surely recharge Rahul and the Congress party, and 'Modi-Shah can be defeated' impression will emerge as a hope.
Will Atal Bihari's prophecy become reality?
"Mark my words, today you (Congress) are laughing at us for having less MP/MLA but the day will come we will have our government all over India with highest no of MP/MLA....(and people) will laugh at you and make fun of you," Atalji had foretold.
BJP: Taking forward "Congress-mukt bharat"
The "Congress-mukt bharat" narrative is fairly new and one can say the seeds were sown by former BJP stalwart and PM Atal Bihari Vajpayee in his parliament speech. Defeating Congress will take the BJP a step close to realizing the narrative, while also taking it away from "party of the north tag." That said, a majority for the BJP appears to be extremely tough.
Tickets to the corrupt and criminals
The challenges BJP is facing in Karnataka is evident from the fact that BS Yeddyurappa is its CM candidate and G Somasekhar Reddy a candidate from Bellary. Both having faced corruption charges against them, their ascent in a party that celebrates "anti black money" day is anything but virtuous. Moreover, 83 (37%) out of 224 candidates in BJP have criminal cases against them.
Modi mantra becoming obsolete?
PM Modi's colossal victory in Uttar Pradesh by breaking caste and communal barriers took everyone by surprise. The Modi mantra overshadowed innumerable factors. But its relevance in Karnataka is debatable with the resurgence of communal politics. Crimes, especially murders have taken communal tones. BJP has incessantly argued that Congress is an anti-Hindu party, while Siddaramaiah has maintained the Kannadiga identity to blunt the narrative.
Janata Dal (Secular): B-team of BJP?
To tackle the Kannadiga pride narrative of Siddaramaiah mixed with appeasement of the Lingayats by giving them minority status, BJP needs JD(S) to turn the numbers in their favor. Congress argues that Janata Dal (Secular) under Kumaraswamy is BJP's "B-team". JD(S) that allied with the saffron bandwagon in 2006, is fighting to stay relevant in Karnataka and opinion polls perceive them as the kingmaker.
Not just another election
With the Congress fighting to survive and the BJP trying to set the narrative for parliamentary elections, the battle between the two is the fight for balance of power. Whatever the outcome, no one can deny that Karnataka has got all eyes on it.
