Elections for 58 Rajya Sabha seats on March 23
Apart from the state and 2019 Lok Sabha elections, upcoming Rajya Sabha polls will have an impact on India's governance. Election Commission (EC) announced that biennial elections to 58 Rajya Sabha (RS) seats from 16 States, falling vacant in April-May, and by-poll to one seat from Kerala will be held on March 23. Why are these RS elections crucial? Here's more about it.
For which states will the RS polls be held?
BJP-led NDA will gain from these polls as it holds power in most states where there are elections, including UP, Bihar, MP, Gujarat and Rajasthan. Other than that, TMC-ruled WB, Congress-ruled Karnataka, TRS-ruled Telangana, BJD-ruled Odisha and TDP-ruled Andhra will elect RS-members. Further, eight ministers, including finance minister Arun Jaitley, telecom minister Ravi Shankar Prasad, HRD minister Prakash Javadekar, will seek a new term.
But, how do assembly election wins ensure more RS seats?
State legislatures elect RS members on a rolling basis, with 1/6th seats opening annually. Number of assembly seats accords proportional votes for a political party to win RS seat. So, its RS presence is directly related to number of states where it holds power. From 5 states in 2014, BJP now has 19 under its belt. This will ensure an improved RS presence.
Separately, why are the RS seats from UP crucial?
During these polls, the 10 UP seats will be crucial. With 312 assembly seats, BJP will comfortably win eight seats. SP, which had a substantial presence earlier, can win only one seat with 47 assembly seats. However, if SP, BSP and Congress pool their surplus votes, they could win the 10th seat. This "united opposition" could set the stage for 2019 LS elections.
Moreover, TMC might become second-largest opposition party after Congress
In Bengal, five seats are up for grabs. Trinamool has numbers to win four seats. So, MPs Nadimul Haq and Vivek Gupta might get re-nominated. For one other, actress Jaya Bachchan is a front-runner. Meanwhile, for the fifth-seat contest, two among three major parties (TMC, Congress, Left) might have to back a candidate together. This will position Trinamool as RS's second-largest opposition party.
Why are the RS elections critical?
In August'17, BJP overtook Congress to become RS's largest party with 58 members against the latter's 57. Now, it might increase its tally to 86 in the 245-member house; the half-way mark is 123. Moreover, earlier Congress used its large RS presence to block legislation like triple-talaq bill, land acquisition etc. Thus, a strengthened RS position is crucial for PM Modi to push reforms.
