Tripura, Meghalaya, Nagaland polls: Parties experience post-poll alliance jitters
Counting of votes in the north-eastern states of Tripura, Meghalaya and Nagaland will be held tomorrow. All have 60-member assemblies. Considering the number of parties, votes are likely to get splintered with none winning the magic number of 30. So they're engaging in quick mathematics and deft back-room diplomacy to throw together the numbers, and scouting for possible winning alliances at the last minute.
In Tripura's ideological battle, it is BJP-IPFT versus CPI(M)
The 25-year Left front government faces a formidable opponent in the BJP-Indigenous Peoples Front of Tripura (IPFT) alliance. Though CPI(M) is matter-of-fact about reaching out to voters "as best as they could," BJP is confident of forming the government as "people want a change." However, this alliance also hangs in balance over IPFT's contentious demand for Tipraland, a separate state of Tripura's tribal areas.
Will NPP ally with BJP in Meghalaya?
Meghalaya witnesses a bi-polar contest between the ruling Congress and former-LS speaker PA Sangma's National People's Party (NPP). Congress is fighting a tough battle as its incumbent government failed to address unemployment and a sluggish economy. Meanwhile, BJP is a bit player; however, if it wins seats, NPP might want to tie-up with its NDA partner. Ethnic parties in Khasi-Jaintia Hills may become kingmakers.
Nagaland: Though tied-up with NDPP, BJP remains pally with NPF
In Nagaland, the Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP) weaved an alliance with BJP, ceding 20 seats. Congress is almost obsolete. The Naga People's Front (NPF), though suffering from internal rivalry, is aiming for a fourth term. It is open to tying up with NPP, JD (U) and Independents to reach 30 seats. Interestingly, BJP-NPF relations remain intact, indicating that BJP is awaiting the results.
Meanwhile, what have the exit polls revealed?
BJP has emerged as a strong contender in all three states. In Tripura, pollsters predict 35-50 seats for BJP and its allies, while Manik Sarkar's Left will get 9-23 seats. Congress won't open its account. In Nagaland, BJP-NDPP may get 27-32 seats, NPF 20-25 and Congress 0-2. Finally, in Meghalaya, BJP might get 8-12 seats, Congress 13-17 seats and NPP 23-27 seats.
What do these northeast elections mean for political parties?
So, as per exit-polls, after the results, BJP might just be one short of a Congress-mukt northeast. However, as things stand, it seems post-poll re-alignments will play a bigger role than existing equations in deciding the type of government. Separately, with a combined strength of 25 LS seats and 14 RS seats, winning in these states would be advantageous to BJP and Congress.
