Ahead of 2019, Modi government worries about jobs created
The 2019-battle is just a year away, and the NDA is worried. PM Narendra Modi has reportedly asked ministries to calculate how many jobs have been created since 2014, a key poll promise. According to Business Standard, it's not good news: the number of unemployed increased from 30L in 2015 to 60L this February. However, going by history, it might not affect BJP's chances.
Promises vs reality: Number of unemployed has doubled in 3yrs
In 2014, while campaigning, Modi had promised to create 1cr jobs a year. In a way, it's succeeding: in February, the number of vacancies at employment exchanges crossed the 10L-mark for the first time in a decade. The number of new jobseekers also declined by 70L since 2014. However, unemployment has become a major issue for youths: almost 2cr jobseekers are aged 18-34.
Amid crisis, over 4L government posts lying vacant
The government doesn't seem to have done much either. As of March'6, there were 412,750 vacant posts in various government departments. Junior Labor Minister Santosh Gangwar said in parliament this February that instructions have been issued to fill these posts, but no deadline was mentioned. The International Labor Organization has predicted darker times: the number of jobless is likely to touch 1.86cr in 2018.
The 2016 cash crunch took away more than cash
Amid such a crisis, demonetization worsened matters even more: IE reports 15L jobs were lost in the January-April'17 period, immediately after the November'17 cash crunch. The maximum job loss, according to the Quarterly Employment Survey for October-December'16, was seen in manufacturing (1.13L), followed by IT/BPO (20,000). Some large firms which lost employee numbers included L&T, Hindustan Unilever, Idea Cellular and Tata Motors.
Officials say difficult to arrive at accurate mathematical figures
Considering these, it is high time Modi worries about the situation. He has asked ministries to submit detailed reports on various schemes and jobs they created. Officials have also been asked to calculate impact of programs on GDP and rank the top five districts in terms of improvement in ease of living. However, many say it is mathematically difficult to arrive at accurate figures.
How far can it impact BJP's chances for 2019?
If history is anything to go by, it shouldn't be a big concern to BJP. A study by Motilal Oswal released this year revealed stark difference between job creation and electoral performance. As example, it cited the UPA-II, which achieved an annual employment growth rate of 4.4% between 2009-10 and 2013-14, the best since the 1970s. However, it lost the 2014 elections, and how.
