Is PM Modi's third term at Centre 'almost inevitable'?
Is Prime Minister Narendra Modi returning to power at the Centre for the third consecutive term after the 2024 Lok Sabha elections? Well, The Guardian's column written by its South Asia Correspondent Hannah Ellis-Petersen suggests so. According to her, Modi and his party, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)'s third consecutive term seems "almost inevitable." Factors contributing to this prediction include his popularity, the BJP's recent election victories, and the emotive issue of the Ram Mandir inauguration in Ayodhya.
Why does this story matter?
The recent assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, Telangana, and Mizoram set the precedent for the Lok Sabha polls. The opposition Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) bloc, of which the Congress is a key constituent, aims to present a unified front against the BJP in 2024. The alliance also claims to be well-established in southern states. The bloc was given a boost by the Congress's victories in Telangana and Karnataka this year.
'Modi's nationalist agenda appeal to majority'
According to Ellis-Petersen, political analysts agree that a win for PM Modi and the BJP is the "most plausible outcome" in India's current political climate. The prime minister's strongman image and the BJP's nationalist agenda continue to resonate with a large majority of Indians, particularly in the heartland. She also noted that since Modi's election in 2014, "the apparatus of the country has been skewed heavily toward the BJP."
Opposition perceived as fragmented, weak
The Guardian column highlights that while regional opposition to the BJP is strong in some areas of south and east India, nationally it is viewed as "fragmented and weak." The main opposition party, Congress, is seen as "hierarchical and riddled with infighting." Furthermore, the recently formed coalition of major opposition parties INDIA has yet to unite on key issues. In such a scenario, the BJP's win is almost inevitable, per Neelanjan Sircar, a fellow at the Centre for Policy Research.
Factors shaping scale of victory remain uncertain
But it remains uncertain if the BJP can replicate its 2019 landslide victory, Ellis-Petersen added. The party's position in crucial states like Bihar and Maharashtra is unclear, and issues such as "jobs and inflation" could impact voting patterns. However, he emphasized Modi's role in elevating India as a global power in international politics and its recent moon landing. The Ram Mandir's grand opening is expected to be a significant event before the general elections.
