Fadnavis in a dilemma about fielding Rane for Council elections
Maharashtra CM Devendra Fadnavis and the BJP leadership are in a dilemma - should they field former Congress leader Narayan Rane for a crucial bypoll of the legislative council to be held on December 7. This bypoll will probably re-align the political balance among the four political parties in Maharashtra: the BJP, Shiv Sena, Congress and NCP. What are the possible combinations? Let's analyze.
Fadnavis promised Rane a cabinet berth after he left Congress
When Rane quit Congress in September, he also resigned from his legislative council seat. In October, he floated a new political party called the Maharashtra Swabhimaan Paksh, which he declared would support the BJP. Later, CM Fadnavis indicated that before the state assembly's winter session, Rane would be made cabinet minister. However, this requires him to be elected to either house of the Assembly.
Why is Fadnavis having second thoughts?
Fadnavis is rethinking his move because of ally Shiv Sena's unequivocal opposition to Rane's induction in the cabinet. Rane rose in politics under Sena and also became Maharashtra CM in 1999. However, after Uddhav Thackeray's rise in the party, he felt sidelined and parted with Sena on a bitter note. Sena still nurses the wound of his betrayal and refuses to support him.
What do the seats in the Maharashtra Assembly reveal?
Meanwhile, in the 288-member Assembly, Rane needs at least 145 votes for getting elected to the council. Presently, BJP has 122 seats, followed by Sena (63), Congress (42) and NCP (41). As it is a secret ballot, there is a possibility of cross-voting.
What are the possible scenarios?
What is the scenario? Rane may face the onslaught of an informal alliance of Sena, Congress and NCP. BJP with 122 seats and 11-12 seats of small affiliates and independent MLAs won't succeed in getting Rane elected. This could cause BJP major embarrassment before upcoming Gujarat elections. However, Rane is important for BJP to make in-roads into Konkan without using Sena as a crutch.
