Looking at accuracy of exit polls from 1998 to 2014
The massive seven-phased general elections concluded on Sunday and as soon as voting ended, TV channels started airing exit polls. While all organizations claim their data is the most accurate, history has shown otherwise. Many times political pundits fail to judge the mood of the nation and crown the losing contestant. Here's looking at what exit polls predicted from 1998 to 2014 elections.
A brief description of exit polls
Exit polls are conducted by agencies after voters cast their ballots. Assuming that the voters reveal their true choice, agencies form their opinion. However, the task becomes daunting as agencies have to carefully select the sample size and keep factors like the urban-rural divide in mind. Agencies employ several people and travel across the nation before giving out the results.
In 1998, exit polls failed to judge BJP's outreach
Most of the exit polls of 1998, gave BJP somewhere between 214-238 seats. Only DRS predicted that the saffron party would win 249 seats, close to the actual number of 252. Congress won 166 seats. Notably, exit polls had said it would win somewhere around 155 seats. Meanwhile, India Today had claimed Congress would win 164 seats, falling just two short of the actual number.
Exit polls gave 300+ seats to NDA in 1999
In 1998, Atal Bihari Vajpayee led the NDA-government but his government fell after AIADMK withdrew support. Thus polls were necessitated and in 1999, exit polls were extremely generous towards NDA. Most exit polls predicted 300+ count for NDA. In fact, India Today suggested 336 seats. When results were declared, NDA won 296 seats. Congress won 134 seats when pollsters claimed it would win 140+.
Experts claimed Vajpayee would return as PM, he didn't
The year 2004 showed experts who claim to know it all, are actually clueless. Most political pundits predicted BJP would get more than 250 seats in 2004 elections and Vajpayee would return as PM. BJP managed to get 189 seats. On the other hand, Congress formed the government (with support of allies) by winning 222 seats. Pollsters had predicted some 191-216 seats for Congress.
Political experts failed miserably in 2009 as well
In 2009, political pundits again failed to judge Congress. Most of them claimed the grand old party would not breach the 200-mark, except NDTV, which predicted Congress would win 216 seats. Congress won 262 seats and Dr. Manmohan Singh returned as PM with support of allies. This time too, pollsters predicted BJP would win 177-197 seats. In reality, the party won just 159 seats.
Modi-wave made it easier for experts to predict 2014's outcome
In last parliamentary polls, the Modi-wave was too obvious to be missed. This is probably why Chanakya claimed BJP would get 340 seats. Most agencies predicted BJP will get 272-290 seats, and they were right. BJP won 282 seats. However, not even pollsters imagined that Congress would be reduced to meager 44 seats in Lok Sabha. Most opined Congress would get 100+ seats.
