Lok Sabha exit polls: Multiple surveys predict Modi 3.0
What's the story
All odds appear to be in the favor of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democatic Alliance (NDA) in this 18th Lok Sabha election again, according to multiple pollsters. An aggregate of six exit polls predicts the NDA to secure 367 seats, with the BJP projected to win 327. If the exit poll projections turn out to be correct, it would mark the return of the NDA government for a historic third time.
Poll projections
Exit polls show varied predictions for NDA and INDIA Bloc
Jan ki Baat's exit poll has predicted between 362 and 392 seats for the NDA and between 141 and 161 for the opposition bloc, the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA). Dainik Bhaskar's poll suggests 281-350 seats for the NDA and 145-201 seats for INDIA. India News-D-Dynamics predicted 371 seats for NDA, and for INDIA, 125. Republic Bharat-Matrize predicted 353-368 for NDA, 118-133 seats for INDIA, while Republic TV-P MARQ predicted 359 seats for NDA and 154 for INDIA bloc.
Regional predictions
NDA expected to make gains in southern states and Bengal
Exit polls also suggest an improved performance by the NDA in southern states and West Bengal. In Andhra Pradesh, the NDA is predicted to secure 18 out of 25 seats due to an alliance with Chandrababu Naidu. The BJP is also expected to make significant gains in Karnataka and debut in Tamil Nadu with up to seven seats. In West Bengal, the BJP's seat tally is predicted to increase from 18 in 2019 to around 22 this time.
Bengal politics
BJP predicted to emerge as single-largest party in West Bengal
Four exit polls predict that the BJP will emerge as the single-largest party in West Bengal, which has been with the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC) since 2011. All four polls agree that Congress will, at best, equal its performance in 2019 when it won two seats. India Today-Axis My India poll predicts that the BJP may be able to win at least 2-3 seats in Kerala—a state where it has never won a single seat in Lok Sabha elections before.
State projections
BJP predicted to dominate in several states
The BJP is expected to continue its dominance in Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, and Delhi. Arvind Kejriwal's Aam Aadmi Party, which fought the election together with the Congress, would fail to win a single seat in Delhi, exit polls predicted. In Bihar, however, the opposition alliance led by Tejashwi Yadav's Rashtriya Janata Dal is predicted to win seven seats this time around.
Campaign conclusion
How accurate are exit poll results
Having said that, exit poll predictions should be taken with a grain of salt. The reason being, exit polls do not always get it right. However, exit polls for 2014 and 2019 elections were notably close to their predictions. In 2019, the majority of exit polls predicted an average of 306 seats for the NDA and 120 for the United Progressive Alliance. The actual results surpassed these predictions, with the NDA securing 352 seats and the UPA winning 93 seats.