Karnataka Floor Test: Details about 3 possible scenarios
What's the story
BJP's newly sworn-in CM Yeddyurappa have to prove his majority in Karnataka Assembly at 4 pm today. In order to ensure transparency, the floor test would be broadcast live. His party is 7 MLAs short of 111 majority mark, while the Congress-JD(S) alliance boasts of 115 lawmakers. With both the parties confident of overthrowing each other, here are three scenarios that can happen today.
Details
Scenario 1: If Opposition MLAs abstain from voting
If the BJP manages to persuade Opposition lawmakers to abstain from voting, it will lower the House strength. That would eventually bring down the number of votes required to prove the majority, as majority is decided upon the strength of the House. At the same time, going against their own parties, the MLAs risk facing the anti-defection law and could be disqualified.
Resign
Scenario 2: If Opposition MLAs resign or cross vote
The second scenario is quite likely. If the Opposition MLAs resign from their parties, once again the number of votes required to prove majority comes down and the BJP can easily prove its strength. In this case, they won't face anti-defection law. Another possibility is cross voting of at-least 7 MLAs from the Congress-JD(S) unit in BJP's favor, BJP can then secure the magic number of 111.
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Disqualification under the Anti-defection law
In case the lawmakers from the Congress-JD(S) alliance cross-vote or vote against their party whip to support BJP's Yeddyurappa, they would invite their disqualification for 6 years under the Anti-Defection law.
Details
Scenario 3: If the BJP loses trust vote
If the alliance can protect itself from the above situations, then the BJP is likely to lose the floor test, paving way for the second largest party/alliance, the Congress-JD(S), to approach the Governor and seek invitation to form the government. If they also fail in the subsequent floor test, chances are that President's rule will be imposed. We can only wait and watch.