Delhi polls: How accurate were 2015, 2020 exit poll predictions
What's the story
The Delhi Assembly elections for 2025 ended at 6:00pm on Wednesday. The voter turnout stood at 57.7% till 5:00pm.
With the voting ending, all eyes were on the exit poll results, which were released soon after polls closed.
Exit polls attempt to gauge voter sentiments as they exit polling stations, providing a first glimpse of potential election results.
These polls are extensively utilized by media and analysts but aren't always accurate due to issues like sample selection and respondent honesty.
Election dynamics
Key players and past exit poll performance in Delhi elections
The 2025 elections will see a three-way contest between AAP, BJP, and Congress.
In the 2015 elections, exit polls predicted an AAP victory but underestimated its scale.
The average of six major exit polls estimated AAP would win around 45 seats. However, AAP secured a landslide victory with 67 seats, while BJP won only three seats and Congress none.
2020 recap
2020 exit polls: A closer but still underestimated prediction
In comparison, the 2020 exit polls were more accurate but still fell short of AAP's success. They predicted AAP would win 54 seats, but AAP won 62 seats.
The India Today-Axis My India poll was the closest in predicting the 2020 results, estimating an AAP victory between 59-68 seats and BJP between 2-11 seats.
Despite improving accuracy over time, exit polls have struggled in other elections too.
Wider perspective
Exit poll challenges beyond Delhi: Lok Sabha and Haryana elections
For example, in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, most exit polls predicted a BJP-led coalition sweep with over 350 seats but they only got 293.
Similarly, last year's Haryana elections saw exit polls predicting a Congress victory that never came.
Such inaccuracies underline issues such as limited sample sizes and non-response biases in exit polling methods.
In the ongoing Delhi Assembly elections, 699 candidates are contesting across 70 constituencies. Vote counting will take place on February 8.