How accurate have exit polls been for Haryana, J&K
When voting in Haryana concludes on Saturday evening, all eyes will turn to exit polls, which will be broadcast from 7:00pm onwards. Various polling agencies including Today Chanakya, Axis My India, CSDS, C Voter, Times Now and Poll of Polls conduct these exit polls for both states. The accuracy of exit polls in these states has been inconsistent in the past, with some accurately forecasting seat allocation and others deviating significantly from actual outcomes.
Exit polls' mixed track record in Haryana elections
In the 2014 Haryana elections, pollsters including India TV-CVoter, ABP News-Nielsen, Times Now and News 24-Chanakya projected seat ranges of 37 to 52 for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The BJP won 47 seats out of 90 in that election. In 2019, exit polls predicted a BJP victory with between 51 to 78 seats, but the party won only 40 seats. It was still able to form a government by allying with the Jannayak Janta Party and seven independent MLAs.
J&K elections: A decade-long gap and exit poll projections
In Jammu and Kashmir, elections were conducted after a 10-year hiatus in three phases from September 18 to October 1. In the last assembly elections held in 2014, pollsters such as the C-Voter Exit Poll predicted that the BJP will win 27-33 seats, the Congress 4-10 seats, the Jammu and Kashmir National Conference 8-14 seats, the Jammu and Kashmir Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) 32-38 seats, and others 2-8 seats.
PDP-BJP coalition collapsed early
However, the PDP emerged as the largest party with 28 seats, followed by the BJP with 25 seats, and Congress at 12. The PDP governed Jammu and Kashmir in alliance with the BJP till 2018. Voters elected 87 members to the Jammu and Kashmir Legislative Assembly, which was set to end its six-year term on January 19, 2020. But the PDP-BJP coalition collapsed before this deadline, resulting in President's rule in the region.
