2022 Assembly elections: Rebels, groupism hurting BJP, Cong in Himachal
The performance of 412 candidates, including several renowned politicians, will be out on Thursday for the high-stake assembly election in Himachal Pradesh. The state had a voter turnout of 66% with the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Congress engaged in direct fight. Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is also trying to make inroads. Here's more on how the parties are grappling with risk factors.
Why does this story matter?
There are speculations of a close race between the BJP and Congress as both parties are concerned about distinct concerns that may tip the scales against them. Apart from the BJP and Congress, AAP is also attempting to establish a presence in the Himalayan state. However, exit polls in Himachal Pradesh forecast a hung legislature, making the parties apprehensive.
Possible rebellion for BJP
Due to issues with ticket allocation, the BJP is facing a significant revolt in over 20 seats, which might affect the outcome, according to The Indian Express. Notably, numerous rebel leaders stayed in the race as Independents despite national president JP Nadda's outreach, which is critical for the BJP. And defeating BJP candidates in these seats will damage top leaders' authority.
Modi factor and prestige issue
The Modi factor and reliance on national-level leaders are two more significant risks that the BJP has taken in Himachal. The BJP campaigned only in Prime Minister Narendra Modi's name. With the 2024 elections approaching, Modi's popularity and senior officials' capacity to manage the Himalayan state and win elections for the party repeatedly would be in jeopardy, as per IE.
Congress grappling with multiple issues
The first hurdle for the Congress would be to win the election in the absence of six-time Chief Minister Virbhadra Singh. Another issue that the party is dealing with is revival, especially following a string of electoral setbacks. Meanwhile, residents and party workers questioned Rahul Gandhi's absence. The party also lacked a visible campaigning face, and loss would be much more discouraging for workers.
AAP's national political ambition may fizzle out
According to IE, the AAP may launch an account in Himachal after shifting its emphasis to Gujarat. In the absence of a notable footprint, AAP is hoping that the elections will allow it to concentrate on its national base. Any seat won by the party will only increase its national presence, which will be critical in the run-up to the 2024 elections.
