Gujarat elections: Bookies predict 107-110 seats for BJP
Though betting is illegal in India, the underground betting business flourishes during elections. Their predictions are often unreliable and sometimes go spectacularly wrong, like it happened during UP elections. Now, taking a cue from the betting blunders of UP elections, punters are cautious about their bets for Gujarat elections outcome. Trends predict BJP's easy win with 107-110 seats. Here's more!
First, what went wrong with their predictions for UP elections?
During the UP elections, bookies lost crores as they expected the BJP to win about 192 to 200 seats; however, BJP went on to win 235 seats. Due to this huge margin, bookies this time around are placing cautious bets.
What is the prediction for Gujarat elections?
A TOI report says betting trends indicate a victory for BJP but with a reduction in number of seats. According to them, BJP will secure 107-110 seats, while Congress will win 70-72 seats of the 182-member assembly. Along similar lines, an HT report says BJP would win about 118-120 seats; however, it is possible that they win just 100 seats with Congress winning 80.
What are the going rates that bookies are offering?
Reports indicate there is a Rs. 1,000cr betting business for the Gujarat assembly elections. As per TOI, the rate is 50paisa for BJP and Rs. 2 for Congress. According to HT, speculators are offering Rs. 1.25 for every Rs. 1 placed on a BJP win and Rs. 3 for every Rs. 1 placed on a Congress win. This keeps changing with the situation on-ground.
Why are bookies predicting a BJP win?
Though prices will change as elections approach, presently bookies feel the "Modi magic" will ensure a BJP win. In urban areas, BJP is facing criticism for its economic policies like GST and demonetization and a 22-year anti-incumbency factor. However, in rural areas, BJP's popularity remains unaffected. Their current predictions indicate a repeat of 2012 elections when BJP won 115 seats and Congress 68.
Meanwhile, punters are not interested in Himachal elections
Meanwhile, while bets are being placed over Gujarat results, punters aren't interested in Himachal elections. They believe that since Gujarat is a prestige issue for Modi and BJP, it is a crowd-puller. Though market is slow, they are confident of larger bets in December.
