2023 election recap: BJP gets lift, Congress faces reality check
What's the story
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has registered an impressive win in three states in the last leg of this year's assembly elections.
It is seen as a big boost for the party and Prime Minister Narendra Modi ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
However, past trends and experts suggest state-level results might not necessarily influence general elections.
Here's a recap of 2023 elections.
Context
Why does this story matter?
The most recent elections in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, and Mizoram set the tone for the Lok Sabha polls.
In 2024, the BJP is facing united opposition, the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA), which now boasts a strong presence in southern states.
The Congress's win in Karnataka and Telangana this year also came as a shot in the arm for the bloc.
Details
What outcomes are expected in 2024
State elections do reportedly shape political narratives in the country. However, Lok Sabha election results—based on these—cannot be predicted accurately given the past trends.
This was evident from assembly poll results in 2003, 2009, and 2018, when general election results were contrary to state-level victories.
In 2009, the BJP won MP and Chhattisgarh but lost to the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance at the Centre.
Congress
Congress's credibility hit but not lost
Major defeats in Gujarat and Uttarakhand in 2022, and now in Rajasthan, MP, and Chhattisgarh reportedly affected the Congress's credibility to lead the INDIA.
However, the grand old party still enjoys a significant presence in southern states, which send 132 MPs to the 543-member Lok Sabha.
It could also reportedly have an edge over regional parties in states like Andhra Pradesh and Odisha.
PM Modi
BJP might use PM Modi's appeal in 2024 polls too
The 2023 assembly poll results also indicated that PM Modi's appeal hasn't diminished as the BJP contested, making him the face of all election campaigns without fielding regional leaders.
It was also able to maintain unity among leaders in Rajasthan and MP despite alleged factionalism.
However, the Congress was severely impacted in Rajasthan by the long-running conflict between ex-CM Ashok Gehlot and Sachin Pilot.
Karnataka
BJP suffered major setback in Karnataka
Despite several victories, the BJP, too, suffered a crucial setback this year, losing Karnataka—the only southern state under its rule—to the Congress.
Notably, Rahul Gandhi's cross-country march—Bharat Jodo Yatra—traversing over 4,000 kilometers, was credited with this victory.
He also assisted in the formation of the INDIA following the Karnataka victory and his brief exclusion from the Parliament after being convicted in a defamation case.
Retrospect
Parties gearing up for ultimate showdown in 2024
The BJP attributed all the triumphs to PM Modi alone, unlike the Congress, which attributed its recent Telangana victory to Gandhi's yatra and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra's election campaigns.
However, reports suggest local leaders were behind securing that vital win.
The semi-final before the Lok Sabha polls—as the 2023 elections were called—implies parties must start over to efficiently prepare for the final confrontation in 2024.
INDIA
Congress loses in heartland, southern states give it hope
This year, the Congress was forced out of the "Hindi heartland." It would be fascinating to see whether its influence in the INDIA is restricted by other constituents.
But with significant states—like Karnataka and Telangana—supporting its Lok Sabha campaign, it won't exactly enter the battle with zero resources either.
States like Himachal Pradesh and those ruled by other INDIA members also give it hope.
Details
9 states went to polls this year
All in all, as many as nine states went to polls this year, including Tripura, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Karnataka, Mizoram, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Telangana.
While the Congress managed to win Karnataka and Telangana—both in South India—the Zoram People's Movement won the recent elections in Mizoram.
Apart from these, the BJP tasted success in all other states (six)—either single-handedly or with alliance partners.