BJP's Rajya Sabha strength drops, NDA below majority mark
The Bharatiya Janata Party has seen a decrease in its strength in the Rajya Sabha, dropping to 86 members. This follows the completion of terms for four of its nominated members - Rakesh Sinha, Ram Shakal, Sonal Mansingh, and Mahesh Jethmalani. Consequently, the tally for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has fallen to 101, below the current majority mark of 113 in the 245-member House.
Current Rajya Sabha composition and potential allies
The Rajya Sabha currently has 225 members with 19 vacancies. The Congress-led Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance holds the majority with 87 seats, including 26 from the Congress, 13 from the Trinamool Congress, and 10 each from the Aam Aadmi Party and the DMK. The remaining seats are held by non-aligned parties, nominated MPs, and independents.
BJP's potential allies and nominated members
To pass bills in the Upper House, the government now relies on non-NDA parties like AIADMK of Tamil Nadu and YSR Congress Party led by former Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Jagan Mohan Reddy. The BJP—assuming it can count on 15 votes from NDA parties' MPs—will need at least 13 additional "aye"s to pass bills. The YSR Congress Party (11) and AIADMK (4) are seen as potential allies despite a strained relationship with the latter since their split last year.
Upcoming elections could shift Rajya Sabha balance
Former Odisha Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik's Biju Janata Dal, which has nine Rajya Sabha MPs, had previously lent issue-based support to the BJP but has stated it will not do so now. If the AIADMK and the BJD don't offer support, the BJP may turn to votes from nominated members who tend to support the ruling party. Currently, there are 20 vacant seats in the Rajya Sabha, including 11 held by elected members for which polls are expected this year.
BJP-led alliance has potential to win 7 seats in polls
The BJP-led alliance has the potential to win seven seats from Assam, Bihar, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Tripura. If it can secure its position in Maharashtra, it could win two more seats there. This could give the BJP as many as nine extra seats which along with nominated members' votes and the YSRCP's support could help it cross the majority mark.
J&K, Telangana elections to impact Rajya Sabha matrix
Four seats in the Rajya Sabha are vacant from Jammu and Kashmir, with Assembly elections expected by September 30 per a Supreme Court order. If the opposition bloc performs well in J&K, it will benefit INDIA in the Upper House. Additionally, the Congress is likely to win the Telangana seat after their victory last year. This is significant as it would provide the Congress with enough votes to claim the Leader of the Opposition post in the Rajya Sabha.
