How accurate were Maharashtra, Jharkhand exit polls in 2019
Voting for the Maharashtra and Jharkhand assembly elections will conclude on Wednesday. The results will be declared on November 23. Exit polls are expected to be released soon after voting ends. In 2019, exit polls for both states were largely accurate in predicting outcomes. In Jharkhand, the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) won, with Hemant Soren's JMM winning 30 seats. The BJP won 25 seats, Congress 16.
Exit polls' performance in 2019 Jharkhand elections
In the 2019 Jharkhand elections, India Today-Axis My India predicted a UPA victory with 43 seats and BJP securing 27. ABP-Voter forecasted a hung assembly with UPA at 35 seats and BJP at 32. Times Now projected 44 seats for the UPA and 28 for the BJP. The actual results saw Hemant Soren's JMM winning 30 seats, BJP securing 25, and Congress obtaining 16.
Maharashtra's 2019 election and exit poll predictions
In Maharashtra's 2019 election, BJP won 105 seats, Shiv Sena 56, NCP 54 and Congress 44 seats. India Today-Axis predicted 166-194 seats for NDA (Shiv Sena and BJP) and 72-90 for UPA (Congress-NCP). News18-IPSOS forecasted a sweeping victory with 243 seats for NDA and only 41 for UPA. Republic-Jan Ki Baat predicted 216-230 seats for NDA and 52-59 for UPA. Times Now predicted NDA would secure around 230 seats while UPA would get about 48.
Exit polls face criticism for inaccuracies
Recent exit polls have been criticized for being wrong in predicting results of other elections such as Lok Sabha and Haryana polls in 2024. For example, exit polls had predicted a landslide victory for BJP-led NDA in Lok Sabha elections but the alliance ended up winning only 293 seats while Congress-led INDIA bloc got 234 seats. Likewise, Haryana exit polls predicted a clear majority for Congress which did not happen as BJP won with 48 seats.
Election Commissioner highlights issues with exit polls
Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar noted how exit polls create "huge distortion" by setting unrealistic expectations. He slammed media for showing early leads before official counting starts around 8:30am. Kumar stressed that results can't be accurately reported before official announcements at specified times. In Maharashtra's current election cycle, Mahayuti alliance faces off against Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA). The Mahayuti comprises BJP with Ajit Pawar-led NCP and Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena. MVA consists of Shiv Sena (UBT), NCP (Sharad Pawar), and Congress party.
