Study predicts superbugs could cause 39 million deaths by 2050
A recent global analysis warns that superbugs, bacteria resistant to antibiotics, could cause over 39 million deaths by the year 2050. The study highlights that older individuals are particularly vulnerable. Despite a decrease in drug-resistant related fatalities among young children due to improved vaccination and hygiene practices, the trend is alarmingly opposite for the elderly population.
Antimicrobial resistance deaths to surge by mid-century
By 2050, annual deaths directly caused by antimicrobial resistance (AMR) are projected to rise to 1.91 million from 1.14 million in 2021, according to the study. AMR is a phenomenon where bacteria evolve, rendering traditional drugs ineffective against them. The research also predicts that AMR will contribute indirectly to approximately 8.2 million deaths annually, a significant increase from the current figure of 4.71 million.
Global research reveals rising AMR trends
The study, conducted by the Global Research on Antimicrobial Resistance (Gram) Project and published in the Lancet, is the first to analyze global AMR trends over time. The researchers analyzed data from 204 countries and territories to estimate deaths from 1990 to 2021 and forecast up to 2050. They concluded that millions of lives could be saved through better infection prevention, improved healthcare access, and the development of new antibiotics.
AMR: A growing global health threat
Dr. Mohsen Naghavi, from the University of Washington's Institute of Health Metrics (IHME), and author of the study, emphasized the importance of antimicrobial medicines in modern healthcare. He expressed concern about the growing resistance to these drugs, emphasizing that antimicrobial resistance (AMR) has posed a major global health threat for decades and continues to worsen. Global leaders are set to discuss this issue at the UN's general assembly in New York later this month.
Decline in AMR deaths among children, rise in elderly
The study, involving over 500 researchers worldwide, noted a significant decline in AMR deaths among children under five, from 488,000 to 193,000 between 1990 and 2022. This number is expected to halve again by 2050. However, the death toll is rising for all other age groups. Fatalities due to AMR among those over 70 have increased by 80% in three decades and are projected to rise by another 146% by mid-century.
Aging population and hospital care linked to AMR infections
Dr. Tomislav Mestrovic, assistant professor at University North in Croatia and an affiliate associate professor at the IHME, explained that the rising trend of AMR infections is linked to rapidly aging populations who are more susceptible to infections. He noted that most AMR infections are linked to hospital settings, with the aging population requiring more hospital care. Older individuals often have chronic diseases like diabetes and heart disease which make them more prone to these infections.
AMR deaths lower in 2021 due to COVID-19 measures
The study observed that AMR-related deaths in 2021 were reduced compared to 2019. However, researchers believe this is likely a temporary reduction due to lesser infections resulting from COVID-19 control measures. They predict that the highest future death tolls will be in South Asian countries such as India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, along with regions in southern and eastern Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. These regions have already witnessed the highest growth in AMR.
