When will the coronavirus outbreak peak in India?
India has reported the third-highest number of coronavirus cases for any country in the world, and while the government has repeatedly highlighted that the number of cases per million population is relatively low, the outbreak is still worsening. Just last week, India had hit another record single-day spike in cases, which has prompted many to ask: when will the outbreak peak in India?
'India can technically reach peak when recovery rate hits 75%'
SBI economists believe that India can technically reach the peak when the recovery rate reaches 75%, Mint reported. This is based on the average benchmark across countries. Currently, India's recovery rate is 72.5%. However, the economists pointed out that there is also no causation between recovery rate and peak rate, citing the case of Brazil which reached its peak at a 69% recovery rate.
Over 26 lakh infected in India so far
According to the Union Health Ministry, India has reported a total of 26,47,664 COVID-19 cases, which includes 6,76,900 active cases and 19,19,843 recoveries. The death toll has also climbed to 50,921. Notably, throughout August, the number of daily new cases has mostly remained above 60,000 and did not drop under 50,000 even on the lowest day.
Which states are past the coronavirus peak?
The report said Maharashtra, Telangana, Bihar, and West Bengal are yet to hit the peak since the positivity rate remains high despite lesser number of tests per million. It said the states that seem to have crossed the peak include Tamil Nadu, Delhi, Gujarat and J&K, and Tripura. At least 22 of the 27 states analyzed are yet to reach the peak, it added.
GDP expected to contract 16.5%, say economists
The economists also revised their GDP growth estimates for the first quarter of the fiscal year 2020-21. The GDP is expected to contract 16.5% compared to an earlier contraction of 20%. The report said, "Specifically, degrowth in corporate GVA is significantly better than revenue degrowth in Q1 FY21 as far as the results of the listed companies are concerned."
'Rural recovery won't have much impact on GDP growth'
The report said, "Rural recovery is unlikely to support such pace in subsequent quarters as overall, the per capita monthly expenditure in urban areas is at least 1.8 times of rural areas and rural wage growth in real terms might still be negative." "Rural recovery will not have much impact on GDP growth," it said, calling for further steps to support growth.
