No significant rainfall likely over next 4-5 days: IMD
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted a dry spell across the country over the next four to five days. However, rainfall is expected to resume from September 26 to October 10, as per the extended range model guidance. This forecast follows a period of excess rainfall since June 1, with an overall increase of 7%.
Cyclonic circulation expected to develop over east India
Mahesh Palawat, Skymet Weather's vice president (climate and meteorology), stated that a change in wind direction to westerly does not necessarily mean rainfall will cease everywhere. He further explained that a fresh cyclonic circulation is anticipated to form over east India around September 22. This weather system could intensify into a cyclonic circulation, moving toward central India and crossing states such as Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, and Madhya Pradesh.
Early monsoon withdrawal
The IMD had previously forecasted that the monsoon might start receding from parts of northwest India around September 22. If this prediction holds true, it will mark the earliest monsoon withdrawal from this region in eight years. In contrast, last year's monsoon began its retreat around September 25. The typical timeline for monsoon withdrawal commences on September 17 and concludes by October 15.
IMD's criteria for declaring monsoon withdrawal
The IMD considers several major synoptic features after September 1 before announcing monsoon withdrawal from western parts. These include a cessation of rainfall activity for five continuous days, the establishment of anticyclones in the lower troposphere, and a significant reduction in moisture content as inferred from satellite water vapor imageries. Further monsoon withdrawal is declared keeping spatial continuity, reduction in moisture as seen in water vapor imageries, and prevalence of dry weather for five days.
Recent rainfall and cyclonic activity in India
A cyclonic circulation was observed over southeast Rajasthan and its vicinity in lower and middle tropospheric levels. Isolated areas in Andaman and Nicobar Islands, western Uttar Pradesh experienced heavy to very heavy rainfall on Wednesday. Similarly, isolated places in West Madhya Pradesh reported heavy rainfall. The western end of the monsoon trough was north of its normal position, while the eastern end was south of its usual position.
