With curbs, India could control new coronavirus cases by May-21
A paper by Mumbai School of Economics and Public Policy has claimed India might make considerable gains in the next couple of weeks in the battle against coronavirus, and could potentially put a lid on new cases by May 21. This, however, will be dependent on restrictions, said economists Neeraj Hatekar and Pallavi Belhekar, who authored the paper. Here's more.
The paper is titled "The End Is Near"
For this study, titled "The End is Near: Corona Stabilizing in Most Indian States", the authors observed the pattern of infections in China and Australia, to understand how microorganisms multiply. Barring populous states like Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, and Bihar, some states will stop reporting new cases as early as May 7, they said. Similarly, the spike could come to a halt by May 21.
Bihar is a matter of concern
The study predicted an upper limit of 24,222 cases in Maharashtra and 4,833 in Gujarat. But not much was said about Bihar since the doubling rate is four days there. "It will not be wise to estimate when the curve will flatten there," said Hatekar. Andhra Pradesh, J&K, Madhya Pradesh, Punjab, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, and Telangana could be better off soon, the authors asserted.
Infections were restricted to clusters and it helped India
What worked for India is the fact that infections have been restricted to clusters in urban areas, the authors said. For example, in MP, the maximum number of cases was reported from Bhopal and Indore. And in Maharashtra, only places like Mumbai, Pune, Nashik, Thane, and Nagpur were infected. The population in which the infection can spread has also been limited, explained Hatekar.
"COVID-19 infections don't follow an exponential path"
"It's not true that throughout COVID-19 infections follow an exponential path. Initially, the pace of growth will increase and then flatten out when it hits the carrying capacity," Hatekar said.
Restricted environment is necessary for stopping virus' growth
For the paper, the authors studied how a colony of microorganisms multiplies in a restricted environment. "The initial stage is when the number of cases increases gradually, followed by the exponential phase of accelerated growth. The flat portion reflects when states hit their carrying capacity and no new cases are reported," Belhekar said. Physical distancing and quarantine help create a restricted environment for coronavirus.
