#NewsBytesExplainer: Why experts believe 4th COVID-19 wave is not coming
Amid the surge in COVID-19 cases in the national capital Delhi, experts have opined this spike doesn't indicate a fourth COVID-19 wave. They did, however, advise people to continue taking preventive steps and not to lower their guard to keep the infection from spreading. People have highlighted many concerns and reservations about the growing cases. Here's all the information required to clear these doubts.
Why does this story matter?
India is currently witnessing a resurgence of COVID-19 cases. On Thursday, the country reported a rise of over 3,390 coronavirus cases than the day before. Among states, Maharashtra continued to add most new cases to the tally. Delhi is also witnessing a continuous surge in daily cases. This comes after the country recorded a sharp decline in infections from January end to April beginning.
'No fresh wave since illness spreading at the same rate'
Eminent epidemiologist Dr. Chandrakant Lahariya said the positivity rate is stagnant, meaning the infection is spreading at the same rate and there is no wave. However, he said that there is a subtle change in the hospitalization rate, which also proves that there is no wave. He told PTI that absolute numbers have no meaning and the cases increase with an increase in testing.
Hospitalization and death rates are the major indicators
The major indicator that indicates a new wave, according to Dr. Lahariya, is the hospitalization rate and the fatality rate. "Therefore, we should not worry too much about the test positivity rate and the absolute number of cases," he said. He also underlined that there is no need for any compulsory intervention but recommended individuals wear masks in public indoor settings and get vaccinated.
Experts advise following simple mitigating measures
Dr. Rajeev Jayadevan, co-chairman of the Indian Medical Association's (IMA) national coronavirus task force, told PTI that the fact that test positive rates are not increasing shows that the situation is not similar to the conflagration caused by the Delta variant. He believes it is too early for a huge wave to occur, but everyone must maintain fundamental mitigation measures without jeopardizing economic activities.
'More cases in the community, although they are mild'
According to Dr. Jugal Kishore, chief of community medicine at Delhi's Safdarjung Hospital, the positivity rate in Delhi is high because officials are doing concentrated testing on just people who exhibit symptoms. However, he stated that there are many more cases in the neighborhood, although they are mild. "So, there isn't a definitive curve which could project away in the capital," he said.
Current COVID-19 situation in Delhi
Delhi has seen an increase in COVID cases since April 20, and the positive rate has stayed between 4% and 7% since April 16. However, the hospitalization rate has been minimal thus far, accounting for fewer than 3% of all the current cases. At the moment, just 178 COVID-19 patients are being treated in Delhi hospitals, while 4,490 are being treated at home.
