Coronavirus: Seven-day average down; has India moved past the worst?
The seven-day average of new coronavirus cases in India has been steadily declining for nine days now, a development that provides a small respite to the second-worst hit nation. From September 17 to 26, the seven-day average dipped — from 93,199 to 85,131, TOI reports. This, despite a rise in testing; from an average of 10.7 lakh on September 17 to 11.2 lakh on September 25.
This trend was unseen since March
While a fall in seven-day average isn't entirely new, it hasn't ever lasted longer than two days, consecutively, since the beginning of the pandemic. But India can't rejoice just yet. While the numbers look comforting, the trend in countries like the US, France, UK, and Spain show coronavirus numbers can pick pace again after a steady decline, even if the drop spanned weeks.
US saw an uneven trend of seven-day average
In the US, the first peak was recorded on April 11, when the seven-day average reached 31,942. On May 29, this number was 20,638. But the seven-day average surged to 66,903 on July 20. On September 13, it dipped again and was recorded at 34,320. It rose to 44,109 on September 26. Similarly, in France, the number of fresh cases is nearing spring's statistics.
In some countries, cases didn't rise after declining
Notably, one can't be sure of the pattern which India will follow. Rather than taking on the path of the aforementioned nations, India could fit in the category of countries that haven't seen a rise in cases after a decline. Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, and South Africa — all in the ten worst-affected countries' list — didn't see a second peak once averages started falling.
States reporting highest cases are also witnessing a dip
The national trend of dipping seven-day average was also seen in states like Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, and Uttar Pradesh; that have reported the highest number of cases. Bihar has also seen a decline. But Kerala, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, West Bengal, and Odisha are reporting spikes. And if Delhi taught any lessons, it's that cases might not necessarily dip after the first downfall.
India-US gap with respect to infections isn't wide enough
On Saturday, India added 85,000+ fresh cases to its figure, taking the tally over 59 lakh. Today, India could cross the 60 lakh mark and soon the country could surpass the tally of the US where 7,287,593 are infected so far. With the addition of 1,124 deaths, the total count reached 94,503. However, India's recovery rate continues to be exemplary as 49,41,627 have recovered.
