IMD predicts more heatwaves, intense summer in India this year
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted that the country will face more heatwave days in the summer of 2024. Addressing a press conference on Friday, IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said that most parts of India would likely experience above-normal maximum and minimum temperatures from March to May. El Nino conditions—the periodic warming of waters in the central Pacific Ocean—might also continue at least until May, according to him.
Why does this story matter?
In India, heatwaves usually occur from March to June, and occasionally, they may extend into July. Data from the IMD indicates that over the last decade, the intensity and duration of heatwaves have increased. Moreover, a new study published in the Environmental International journal in January showed that high-intensity heatwave days for long durations can significantly increase mortality rates in Indian cities. Notably, extreme heatwaves were recorded in 2016, 2018, 2019, and 2023.
Most regions to experience above-normal temperatures: IMD
The IMD stated in a press release that above-normal maximum temperatures were expected in most regions, with the exception of some isolated areas in northwest, northeast, central, and peninsular India. In March, monthly maximum temperatures are predicted to be above normal in many areas of the peninsula, northeast, west central, and northwest India. However, normal to below normal maximum temperatures are most likely over most parts of east and east-central India and some parts of northwest India, per IMD.
2024 expected to have more heatwave days
Moreover, the IMD predicted an above-normal number of heatwave days between March and May in most parts of the country, excluding northeast India, Western Himalayan Region, the southwest Peninsula, and west coast. Areas in Maharashtra, Odisha, and northeast peninsular India—including Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, and the northern interior of Karnataka—may experience more heatwave days than usual. Mohapatra added that heatwave conditions will likely be less frequent in northwest, central, and eastern India during March.
India expected to see above-normal rainfall in March
India is expected to see above-normal rainfall in March (over 117% of the long-period average of 29.9 mm). "Normal to above-normal rainfall is likely over most parts of the country except over extreme southeastern areas of south Peninsula and some areas of northeast and extreme northwest India where below-normal rainfall is likely," the IMD said. It said La Nina conditions—associated with good monsoon rainfall in India—are anticipated to emerge during the second half of the monsoon season.
Increased mortality rate linked to intense heatwaves: Study
The aforementioned study, titled "Impact of heatwaves on all-cause mortality in India: A comprehensive multi-city study," found that unusually high temperatures for a day raise the mortality rate by 12.2%. Similarly, when high temperatures persist for two consecutive days, daily mortality increases by 14.7%. The study, published in the Environmental International journal in January, analyzed 10 cities, including Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai, Hyderabad, Bengaluru, and Kolkata, as part of the research.
