IMD predicts above average monsoon for India this year
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast an "above normal" monsoon for the country this year. The total rainfall is projected to be 106% of the long-term average, which is 87cm. This prediction comes as El Nino conditions, typically associated with a weaker monsoon, are expected to diminish early in the season. This shift will make way for milder La Nina conditions, often linked with a robust monsoon.
Historical data supports above normal monsoon prediction
Historical data reveals that most of the 22 La Nina years have experienced normal or above normal monsoons. Only in 1974 and 2000 was there less than normal rainfall. M Ravichandran, secretary of the ministry of earth sciences, stated, "According to the rainfall data from 1971 till 2020, we have introduced new long-period average and normal...the average of the total rainfall of the entire country will be 87cm."
Spring snow cover and IOD conditions influence monsoon forecast
The IMD noted that this spring's snow cover over the northern hemisphere was below average, a condition typically associated with increased southwest monsoon rainfall. Consequently, higher than usual rainfall is expected. Additionally, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are currently present over the Indian Ocean. The latest climate model forecasts suggest that positive IOD conditions may develop during the latter part of the southwest monsoon season.
Heatwave forecast precedes above normal monsoon prediction
The above-average monsoon forecast follows the IMD's prediction of severe heatwave conditions for India's summer. IMD chief Mrityunjay Mohapatra warned that intense heat is expected during the election period. However, he clarified that no changes have been suggested for public rally and voting timings. The southwest monsoon, which provides about 70% of India's annual rainfall, usually reaches Kerala around June 1 and withdraws by mid-September.
