India launches contingency plans amid rising 'El Nino' chances
While raising concerns about rainfall deficit in the upcoming monsoon season, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) also predicted a 70-80% probability of an El Nino climate pattern this year. According to experts, an El Nino that follows a La Nina year typically results in a significant shortage of downpours, which might jeopardize agricultural production and other aspects of the Indian economy.
Why does this story matter?
Earlier on Tuesday, the weather department forecasted that India is likely to receive normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon season despite the evolving El Nino conditions. However, this came even as IMD opted to establish advisory services and forecasts for each of the more than 760 districts in the country based on various rainfall scenarios, among other steps, to protect farmers.
Details on India's contingency plans
According to the news outlet Hindustan Times, the weather department is providing states with customized forecasts in advance to prepare them for any adverse conditions. Reportedly, the IMD is set to provide agro-meteorological advisory services and forecasts to every Indian district this year for different rainfall scenarios that will be communicated through Krishi Vigyan Kendras, a state-run network of farm centers.
Difference between El Nino, La Nina
El Nino can be described as a monsoon-disrupting climate pattern caused by a heating up of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, triggering weather-related chaos worldwide and often causing droughts in India. When it comes to La Nina, it is a weather pattern that is the complete opposite of El Nino and is known for bringing good rainfall during the monsoon season in our country.
Here's what experts are saying about El Nino
Dr. Anjal Prakash, research director, Bharti Institute of Public Policy, Indian School of Business, revealed that though 40% of the El Nino years have seen normal or above normal monsoon, 60% have resulted in a rainfall deficiency. "Why do we take smaller denominations rather than understanding the larger trends that show that El Nino has an impact on monsoon rainfall patterns," asked Prakash.
How El Nino's wrath struck India in past
From 2001 to 2020, India reported seven El Nino years. Out of these, four caused droughts during 2003, 2005, 2009-10, and 2015-16. Furthermore, these years also led to Kharif or summer-sown farm harvest going down by 16%, 8%, 10%, and 3%, respectively, triggering inflation. The Kharif season output typically accounts for nearly 50% of the nation's annual food supply.
Know how IMD measures rainfall
According to the IMD, a rainfall between 96% and 104% of a 50-year average of 87cm is considered "normal." Rainfall below 90% of the long-period average is defined as "deficient." While anything between 90% and 95% is said to be "below normal," rainfall between 105% and 110% is considered "above normal." Furthermore, more than 100% of rainfall is labeled "excess."
