India's COVID-19 situation is getting worse, says top scientist
There is a disturbing trend in India's coronavirus situation, warned Dr. Vipin Srivastava, eminent physicist and a former pro-vice-chancellor at the University of Hyderabad. Dr. Srivastava had earlier predicted the onset of a third wave of the pandemic on July 4. He has even ruled out the possibility of herd immunity in the country as yet. Here are more details on this.
Daily death load has worsened in recent weeks
Dr. Srivastava has based the COVID-19 curve on Daily Death Load (DDL). It is calculated by taking the ratio between the number of coronavirus deaths and new active cases in the same 24-hour period. This measure has worsened in the weeks after July 4, reported The Times of India. It was unfavorable on as many as 10 occasions from July 24 to August 7.
'Wild fluctuations in DDL a cause for concern'
"The cause for concern is appearance of wild fluctuations in DDL since July 4. This is found to occur whenever there is a crossover in the scenario, i.e. when the number of daily deaths changes from an increasing trend to a decreasing one, or vice versa," Dr. Srivastava said. This may partially be because official death figures were corrected several times during second wave.
Ratio between new and recovered patients not improving
Dr. Srivastava highlighted that the ratio between new patients and recovered patients is not improving much despite a slump in the second wave. "The number of new COVID-19 positive cases in 24 hours is exceeding the number of recovered cases in the same 24 hours even though the number of COVID-19 deaths is hovering around 500," he said, according to The Times of India.
India's coronavirus situation
India had faced a dreadful second wave of the pandemic earlier this year, reporting lakhs of cases and thousands of deaths every day. The situation has since improved, with daily cases hovering around 40,000 for the last few weeks. In the past 24 hours, India logged 28,204 new cases - the lowest surge in almost five months. Its official death toll has crossed 4,25,000.
How is India's vaccination drive going?
India has administered more than 50 crore vaccine doses so far. Even though 29% of the population have received at least one shot, just above 8% have been fully vaccinated. India has set a goal of inoculating nearly a billion people by the end of this year. However, several states continue to report a shortage of vaccines.
