IMD predicts warmer winter, fewer coldwave days
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast a warmer winter season for the country, with above-normal temperatures expected from December to February. November 2024 was recorded as the second warmest November for India since 1901 and the warmest for northwest India in 123 years. This comes after a record-breaking October, which was the warmest in over a century with unprecedented night-time and mean temperatures.
Temperature and rainfall predictions for upcoming winter
The IMD also predicts that most regions will witness above-normal minimum and maximum temperatures during the winter months. However, south peninsular India may witness normal to below-normal maximum temperatures. Further, the number of cold wave days is expected to be below normal, with only two to four days expected instead of the usual five or six.
Lack of western disturbances behind warmer conditions
The absence of western disturbances has been cited as a reason for the warmer conditions. IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said, "Above-normal minimum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country" during this period. He added that "below-normal cold wave days are expected over most parts of northwest, central, east and northeast parts of the country."
Rainfall patterns and deficiencies for winter season
Rainfall patterns are also expected to change, with above-normal rainfall predicted for peninsular India, west-central India, and parts of east-central and northeast India. Meanwhile, normal to below-normal rainfall is likely over north and northwest India. The IMD pointed out a major rain deficiency in November 2024, especially in northwest India, which recorded a 79.9% deficiency. This dry spell is likely to continue in December for these regions.
