IMD predicts harsh winter for several states; check list
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast a harsh winter for the country, particularly in northwest and central regions, including Delhi NCR. It said that states like Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Jammu and Kashmir may also see frigid conditions. This prediction is based on the expected arrival of La Nina conditions by October-November. La Nina, characterized by cooling ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, typically brings increased rainfall to India.
Delayed monsoon withdrawal expected by mid-October
The IMD has also indicated a delayed withdrawal of the southwest monsoon rains, which concluded on Monday with an eight percent surplus. "Rainfall activity is increasing in the week commencing from 17 October. If that goes right, we can expect that northeastern monsoon will set in over the southeastern peninsula by 17 October," stated IMD chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra during a press conference regarding monsoon and October weather outlook.
La Nina conditions may bring colder winter temperatures
Mohapatra stated that there is a 71% chance that La Nina conditions will develop during October-November. This could result in colder than usual winter temperatures in northern India, including Delhi-NCR. "La Nina condition is still weak and how much it will strengthen in January or February, that we have to monitor," he added. The severity of cold wave conditions will be revealed in November's forecast.
Above-normal rainfall recorded during 2024 southwest monsoon
Despite a sluggish start, India received 7.6% above-normal rainfall during the 2024 southwest monsoon. The total rainfall recorded was 934.8mm, which is 107.6% of the long-period average (LPA). Regions including Rajasthan, Gujarat, West Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh experienced excess rainfall according to IMD data.
