India may have crossed coronavirus peak, claims Finance Ministry
What's the story
Seven months after India imposed a strict lockdown to contain coronavirus spread, the country may have crossed the peak, the Finance Ministry said in its September report.
The stage is set for economic recovery, the Ministry said, however, warning that the threat of the disease is far from over. Losing sight of precautions isn't advisable, it emphasized.
Here's more on this.
Data
Data between September 17 and 30 paints a heartening image
To arrive at the conclusion about the peak, the Finance Ministry assessed the data from September 17 to 30.
"During this period, the seven-day moving average of daily positive cases has steadily declined from about 93,000 to 83,000 while the seven-day moving average of daily tests has risen from about 1,15,000 to 1,24,000," the Ministry's report highlighted.
The positivity rate is also declining.
Active cases
Fortunately, the recovery rate continues to be steady
The report, titled Finance Ministry's Monthly Economic Review, added, "Growth in active cases fell to -0.4% as on September 30 as compared to 1.65% as on August 31."
The recovery rate remained steady at 83.5%.
"The declining positivity rate at all-India level sets the stage to further push up the frontiers of economic recovery," the report added, asking all stakeholders to work toward it.
Findings
Some states recorded a recovery rate of over 90%
The Finance Ministry disclosed that on September 30, Tamil Nadu, Bihar, and Andhra Pradesh recorded a recovery rate of over 90%; while Delhi, West Bengal, Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, and Rajasthan recorded recovery rate of over 80%.
"Case fatality rate continued to decline to 1.6%, with major hotspot states witnessing a declining trend. COVID-19 testing has been scaled up significantly since June," added the report.
Economy
'AatmaNirbhar Bharat' package and unlocking of economy proved beneficial
On the state of the economy, that remains badly affected due to coronavirus-necessitated lockdown, the Finance Ministry maintained that the AatmaNirbhar Bharat package of Rs. 20 lakh crore, proved beneficial.
The subsequent unlocking phases also helped in bringing the economy back on track, said the report.
To support its claims, the Finance Ministry drew attention to the record production of kharif crops.
Facts
Demand up in rural areas, exports swelled, GST collection improved
The Finance Ministry also referred to economic growth in the rural sector — reflected in the spurt in the registration of two/three-wheelers and tractor sales in August — to support its claims.
Moreover, India's exports also swelled by over 5% in September.
"The growth outlook has improved significantly in September with GST collections swelling to six-month high at Rs. 95,480 crore," it added.
Steps
"Steps taken by government will strengthen the economy"
The Ministry noted coronavirus has threatened short-term and medium-term growth rate.
"To combat these risks, the government has strategically undertaken various important structural reforms encompassing various sectors. These will strengthen the fundamentals of the economy toward a strong and sustainable long-term growth," the report went on.
Notably, the Ministry said it wasn't opposed to taking more decisions that could "ameliorate the suffering of people."
Reaction
When did MoF become Ministry of Health, asked Chidambaram
The conclusions of the Finance Ministry, unsurprisingly, didn't find many takers in the opposition.
P Chidambaram, the former Finance Minister of India, tweeted to ask when did Ministry of Finance "take over" the Ministry of Health.
"After 'success' in predicting a V-shaped recovery of the economy, MoF is now predicting that COVID-19 is past its peak and on the decline," he wrote.
Twitter Post
Chidambaram is clearly not convinced with MoF's conclusions
When did the Ministry of Finance take over the Ministry of Health?
— P. Chidambaram (@PChidambaram_IN) October 5, 2020
After ‘success’ in predicting a V-shaped recovery of the economy, MoF is now predicting that COVID 19 is past its peak and on the decline.
Will this be an inverted V-shaped decline of the pandemic?!