Delhi's COVID-19 'R-value' crosses 2: Here's what it means
What's the story
Amid the surge in COVID-19 cases in the country, Delhi's R-value was recorded at 2.1 this week, according to an analysis by IIT Madras. The R-value represents the effective reproduction number of COVID-19. This means every infected person is affecting two others in Delhi. Meanwhile, India's R-value currently stands at 1.3, the analysis found. The IIT-M's report was shared with the news agency PTI.
Context
Why does this story matter?
Delhi has been witnessing a massive surge in COVID-19 cases of late. On Saturday, it reported 1,042 fresh cases and a positivity rate of 4.64%. Reportedly, the BA.2.12 Omicron variant has been detected in most of the samples from Delhi in the first two weeks of April. This variant could have triggered the recent spike in COVID-19 cases in the national capital, PTI reported.
COVID-19 spread
What does R-value mean?
Also known as R-factor, R0 (R-naught), and R0 value, the R-value simply suggests the rate at which a disease is spreading in a community. An R-value of 1 would mean that an infected person is transmitting the virus to one other person. Similarly, an R-value of 5 means that a person affected by the disease is spreading it to five others.
Preliminary analysis
Is this the beginning of COVID-19 fourth wave?
Notably, the current preliminary analysis using computational modeling was done by IIT Madras's Department of Mathematics and Centre of Excellence for Computational Mathematics and Data Science. Asked if based on this, it can be assumed the fourth COVID-19 wave was starting in Delhi, Dr. Jayant Jha, Assistant Professor in the Department of Mathematics, said it was too early to declare the next wave's onset.
Other metros
What else did Dr. Jha say?
Dr. Jha further said, "We can only say right now that every person is affecting two others...but we need to wait a bit to declare onset." It is yet to be ascertained if people who got infected in the third wave are being affected again, he added. He said cases in other metros—Mumbai, Chennai, and Kolkata—were also currently too low to ascertain a trend.
Variants
BA.2.12.1 Omicron variant also found in some Delhi samples
Meanwhile, PTI reported the BA.2.12.1 Omicron variant derivative—behind the surge in cases in the US—was also found in some Delhi samples, citing an Indian SARS-CoV-2 Genomics Consortium (INSACOG) source. "New sub-variants BA.2.12 (52% samples) and BA.2.10 (11% samples) are showing high transmission and have been found in over 60% of the total samples from Delhi sequenced recently," PTI quoted another official source as saying.