India could see 50,000 COVID-19 cases/day in mid-May: IIT-Kanpur professor
The current surge in COVID-19 cases in India is likely to reach its peak with 50,000-60,000 new cases every day in mid-May, said Dr. Manindra Agrawal, a professor at the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Kanpur. The prediction was reportedly based on a mathematical model. However, a more precise prediction could be made once enough data is available a week later, he said.
Why does this story matter?
Over the past couple of weeks, the number of COVID-19 infections has increased drastically in India, leading the Union Health Ministry to conduct nationwide COVID-19 preparedness mock drills at government and private hospitals. Notably, the number of daily cases has continuously surpassed the 10,000 mark this week, with Friday seeing the highest number of new COVID-19 cases at 11,109 in recent weeks.
'50,000 COVID-19 cases no big deal': Dr. Agrawal
Dr. Agrawal further said COVID-19 caused by the prevalent variants might not be as dangerous as it was during the second wave, adding the symptoms are mild and most people are being treated at home. "50,000 COVID-19 cases will be recorded in the upcoming months according to the model, which is not a big deal for...India whose population is so high," he said.
India continues to report surge in COVID-19 cases
According to data issued on Saturday morning by the Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, India recorded 10,753 new cases of COVID-19 in the past 24 hours, a 3% decrease from Friday's 11,109 infections. While the total number of coronavirus infections in the country has now reached 4,48,08,022, the death toll now stands at 5,31,091, with 27 more deaths recorded on Friday.
COVID-19 surge reported due to these reasons
Dr. Aggarwal claimed that there were two main reasons for the surge in COVID-19 cases. The first reason was that the natural immunity to fight the virus has now reduced in 5% of people. The second reason was the new COVID-19 variant has been spreading at a fast rate. Currently, above 90% of people in India have natural immunity, according to the IIT-Kanpur professor.
New variant 'Arcturus' emerging with different symptoms
Meanwhile, the World Health Organization (WHO) is now monitoring a new COVID-19 variant that has apparently caused new symptoms, such as itchy conjunctivitis or red, sticky eyes, that are uncommon in infections caused by other Omicron sub-variants. The XBB.1.16 variant, known as "Arcturus," is being blamed for the recent increase in cases in several countries, including India, Australia, and the United States (US).
Arcturus reportedly spreads faster than XBB.1, XBB.1.5
Arcturus is said to be a recombinant of two BA.2 subvariants. According to a preprint study at the University of Tokyo, this variant spreads 1.17-1.27 times faster than other Omicron descendants like XBB.1 and XBB.1.5. It claimed that this was why Arcturus will "spread worldwide in the near future," as it appeared to be "robustly resistant" to antibodies when compared to other coronavirus strains.
