COVID-19 surge in India to decline next month, predicts model
The ongoing surge in COVID-19 cases in India is expected to decline in February, as estimated by the researchers at the Indian Institute of Science (IISc) and the Indian Statistical Institute (ISI). Reportedly, the decline in infections will vary across states and the nationwide curve will begin to flatten by March-April. The study also predicted a grim situation for India's healthcare system.
Why does this story matter?
The ongoing "third wave" has been attributed to the emergence of the Omicron variant of coronavirus, which is highly contagious. Within a fortnight, daily infections in India have jumped from roughly 10,000 to nearly two lakh. The rapid surge has already forced several states to impose fresh lockdown-like restrictions. India has also ramped up its vaccination drive considering the threat.
Model considers 3 likely outbreak scenarios
The model takes into account India's official COVID-19 data till January 10. It also accounts for Omicron's transmissibility rates in South Africa. It considers three scenarios, where 100% (A), 60% (B), and 30% (C) of the population are susceptible to infection. For scenarios B and C, a decline in infections is anticipated by February, while the same is slightly delayed for scenario A.
4 lakh hospital beds required in worst case
According to the model, the third wave might see as many as eight lakh daily infections—twice as many as witnessed during the second wave. It predicts that the estimated hospital bed requirement may go beyond four lakh a day (including 20,000 ICU beds) in scenario A—the worst-case scenario. In the more likely scenario B, the hospital requirement maybe around three lakh a day.
Delhi may see up to 60K daily cases
For Delhi—which is reporting a whopping 20,000 daily cases—the model predicted that daily infections may climb as high as 40,000 in scenario B. In the worst-case scenario, cases may even reach 60,000. The estimations also show that the rise in infections may be delayed in Puducherry, Lakshadweep, and Punjab. However, COVID-19 cases across the country are excepted to decline by April, it said.
How bad is the outbreak in India?
As of Wednesday morning, India reported a total of 3.6 crore COVID-19 cases, including 9.5 lakh active infections. The death toll has risen to 4.84 lakh. On Wednesday, India had added 1.94 lakh new cases, 442 more deaths, and over 60,000 more recoveries. The weekly positivity rate was recorded at 9.82%, while the daily positive rate is at 11.05%.
Omicron cases near 5K in India
Meanwhile, India's Omicron tally climbed to 4,868 on Wednesday, with cases being detected in 28 states and union territories. The worst-affected regions include Maharashtra (1,281 Omicron cases), Rajasthan (645), Delhi (546), Karnataka (479), Kerala (350), West Bengal (294), Uttar Pradesh (275), Gujarat (236), and Tamil Nadu (185). Overall, a total of 1,805 patients infected with Omicron have recovered, migrated, or been discharged.
