India's COVID-19 third wave has likely peaked. Here's why
The graph of India's third wave of COVID-19 seems to have started declining, meaning the outbreak peak may have already arrived. Daily coronavirus cases at the national level have been dipping for a week now—the first time such a fall has happened since the beginning of the third wave in December 2021. Further, active cases have also been going down for four days.
Why does this story matter?
If the current trend holds, it would be a crucial development in India's fight against COVID-19 and would defy predictions of the third wave peak reaching around eight lakh daily cases. India had reported the highest single-day surge of nearly 3,50,000 cases in the current wave. However, many infections might have gone undetected due to lower testing and generally milder or asymptomatic disease.
7-day average of cases goes down
In terms of the seven-day average of daily cases, India had registered an average of 3,12,180 infections for the week ending on Tuesday. In comparison, the country logged 2,79,100 average cases for the week ending on Friday, marking a drop of around 10%. This was the first time that the weekly average of cases fell during the third wave.
Test positivity rate also on the fall
Further, the national daily test positivity rate has been falling. It was 20.9% on January 23 but has since dropped to 15.8% on Thursday. The number of daily deaths, however, is still rising. But that is partly because of the inclusion of previously-unaccounted fatalities from states like Kerala. In fact, daily deaths remain far lower than the peak witnessed during the second COVID-19 wave.
Downward trend also seen at state level
The downward trend of cases has also been seen at the state level. Of India's three dozen states and union territories, as many as 29 regions have witnessed a drop of infections in varying degrees, according to Hindustan Times. At least 16 states and union territories have seen cases dip by over 20% from their latest peaks.
India's latest COVID-19 figures
On Saturday morning, India added nearly 2,35,000 new COVID-19 cases, marking a dip of 6% from Friday's case count. A total of 871 deaths were registered, which included 258 previously-unaccounted deaths from Kerala. The national-level test positivity rate fell further to 13.39%. Meanwhile, under India's COVID-19 vaccination drive, more than 164 crore vaccine doses have been administered across the country.
