COVID-19 third wave likely this month, peak in October: Report
A third wave of coronavirus infections could hit India as soon as this month and may peak in October, according to a mathematical model prepared by top researchers. Daily cases in the fresh wave could go up to 1,50,000, the study by researchers at the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) in Hyderabad and Kanpur, has revealed.
Best-case scenario: Under 1,00,000 daily cases
The group of researchers was led by Mathukumalli Vidyasagar of IIT-Hyderabad and Manindra Agrawal of IIT-Kanpur. They said the coming wave could peak with less than 1,00,000 infections in the best-case scenario, or nearly 1,50,000 in the worst-case scenario, Bloomberg reported. Those are optimistic figures, considering India's devastating second wave had peaked at over 4,00,000 daily cases earlier this year.
States like Kerala, Maharashtra could 'skew the picture'
The experts noted that states reporting a high number of daily COVID-19 cases, such as Kerala and Maharashtra, could play a major role in the third wave. These states could "skew the picture," Vidyasagar told Bloomberg in an email. On Sunday, nearly 50% of all new cases in India were reported from Kerala, while 16.5% were witnessed in the worst-hit state, Maharashtra.
Experts pin hopes on vaccinations, natural immunity
Experts say the highly-contagious Delta variant, which drove India's second wave and is currently triggering outbreaks in several countries, can fuel another surge here. However, they have pinned hopes on vaccinations and the natural immunity developed by Indians from prior infections. A recent serological survey suggested that nearly two-thirds of the Indian population have antibodies against the coronavirus.
India's coronavirus situation
India had faced the world's worst coronavirus outbreak, beginning in late March and peaking in early May. It had crumpled the country's healthcare system. After a sharp fall in the subsequent months, daily cases in India have been hovering around 40,000 for the past several weeks. The stagnation has been attributed to Kerala and some north-eastern states, that are still reporting high daily cases.
How is India's vaccination drive going?
India has administered more than 46 crore vaccine doses so far. Even though over 26% of the population have received at least one shot, just around 7.5% have been fully vaccinated. India has set a goal of inoculating nearly a billion people by the end of this year. However, several states continue to report a shortage of vaccines.
Kerala should lift strict lockdown measures, expert says
Agrawal said on Twitter that Kerala should lift its strict lockdown measures while enforcing basic rules like wearing face masks and avoiding crowds. This will allow the contact rate, which indicates the pace of the pandemic, to settle around 0.35. This way, the state will see a peak of around 25,000 infections by mid-August, after which the cases will start falling, he stated.
