In 5 days, India's COVID-19 cases doubled to 5,000
In spite of a nationwide lockdown, the highly-contagious novel coronavirus continues to spread across India, sickening more and more people every day. Till last week, India had reported a total number of 2,500 cases of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19). However, the national tally stood at 5,194 on Wednesday morning, doubling in a matter of days. What does this mean for flattening the curve?
First case reported in January; no major outbreak till March
India had reported its first case of COVID-19 on January 30. The patient was a woman from Kerala who was studying in China's Wuhan city, the epicenter of the outbreak. Two more cases were reported, however, by late-February, all three had been cured and discharged. On March 2, India reported fresh COVID-19 cases and the outbreak has since only worsened.
By mid-March, COVID-19 cases climbed to 300
On March 10, India reported its first COVID-19 death, a 76-year-old man from Kalaburagi, Karnataka. On March 22, when India observed a nationwide 'Janata Curfew' to limit the spread of the disease, 324 COVID-19 cases, including five deaths were reported.
Week after 'Janata Curfew', COVID-19 cases crossed 1,000
A mere week after the 'Janata Curfew', on March 29, India's COVID-19 cases surged past 1,000, according to government data. It took four more days for the cases to double on April 2, when the Ministry confirmed 2,069 COVID-19 cases. About 24 hours later, India had confirmed 2,547 COVID-19 cases by April 3. The Ministry had confirmed 53 deaths till then.
COVID-19 cases rose last week, but rate of infection dropped
From April 3, the COVID-19 cases jumped by 20% in the next 24 hours, reaching 3,074 on April 4. By April 5, another 24 hours later, the cases had jumped by 16%, reaching 3,577, and by April 6, the cases reached 4,281 (up by 19%). By April 7, India's tally jumped another 11%, reaching 4,789. These included 124 deaths, as per the Health Ministry.
This morning, India's COVID-19 cases stood at 5,194
As per the latest update from the Health Ministry, as of 9 am on Wednesday, India had reported a total of 5,194 COVID-19 cases. The date shows COVID-19 cases jumped by 8% in 15 hours. The total cases include 149 deaths and 4,643 active cases along with 401 cases where the patient was cured or discharged and one patient who migrated out of India.
Note: Health Ministry data may not reflect actual cases
The Health Ministry website does not indicate the actual number of COVID-19 cases since a significant lag has been observed between confirmation of infections and deaths between state authorities and the Centre. However, for the sake of consistency, the Union Ministry's data has been referred.
Despite lockdown, why are the cases rising?
The novel coronavirus is notably very contagious, with an R0 (reproductive number) between 2-3. This is much worse than your average flu. According to the Health Ministry, a COVID-19 patient who is not quarantined can infect as many as 400 people within 30 days. Unfortunately for India, there have been reports of COVID-19 patients breaking quarantine and thousands—if not lakhs—have violated the nationwide lockdown.
Despite efforts to ramp up testing, India continues to lag
According to the Indian Council of Medical Research, India had tested 1.14 lakh samples till Tuesday at 9 pm. However, since individuals are tested multiple times during treatment, India's testing rate must be under 87 per million.
Tablighi Jamaat event major reason behind recent spike
Among the biggest reasons for India's recent spike in COVID-19 cases is a mid-March religious congregation of the Islamic missionary group Tablighi Jamaat. Over a quarter of the COVID-19 cases in India have been traced to the congregation, which involved foreign nationals, who are believed to have brought the contagion to India. Several states are still tracing and quarantining attendees and their contacts.
Cases doubling in 4.1 days due to Tablighi Jamaat: Centre
Health Ministry Joint Secretary Lav Agarwal said on Sunday that India's COVID-19 cases are doubling in a period of 4.1 days. He said had it not been for the Tablighi Jamaat event, the cases would have been doubling in 7.4 days.
