90% of India in 'danger' zone of heatwave impact: Study
Around 90% of India and almost all of Delhi fall in the "danger" zone of heatwave impact, as per a new study by Ramit Debnath and his colleagues at the University of Cambridge. The study suggested that heatwaves have slowed India's progress toward achieving the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) more significantly than previously thought.
Why does this story matter?
A Harvard study earlier this year showed that India was lagging behind the target of SDGs. Furthermore, the West has criticized India for not taking adequate steps to mitigate climate change. Rising global temperatures are a burning issue, and while studies show that developed countries contribute the most to climate change, the "Global South" bears the brunt disproportionately in comparison to developed economies.
Over 17,000 people died of heatwaves in 50 years
Over 17,000 people died in India in 706 heatwave incidents from 1971-2019, as per a paper published in 2021 by scientists Kamaljit Ray, SS Ray, RK Giri, AP Dimri, and M Rajeevan, the former secretary of the Ministry of Earth Sciences. Recently, 13 people died of heatstroke at an award ceremony in Maharashtra, making it one of the deadliest heatwave-related incidents in India's history.
When is it considered a heatwave?
A heatwave meets its threshold when the temperature is at 4.5 degrees Celsius above normal and when the maximum temperature reaches at least 40 degrees Celsius in the plains, 37 degrees Celsius in coastal areas, and 30 degrees Celsius in hilly areas.
How is the impact of heatwaves gauged?
The commonly used Climate Vulnerability Index (CVI) studies the composite impact of heatwaves by taking socioeconomic, livelihood, and biophysical factors into account. The Heat Index (HI) measures how hot the human body feels with respect to temperature and humidity.
Study compared India's SDG progress from 2001-2021
The study used data from the National Data and Analytics Platform on state-level climate vulnerability indicators to classify severity categories. The researchers then compared India's SDGs progress with extreme weather-related mortality from 2001-2021. The study showed that over 90% of India is in the "extremely cautious" or "danger" range of heatwave impacts through HI, which is otherwise considered "low" or "moderate" vulnerability through CVI.
Study suggests India reassess climate vulnerabilities
The study also found that CVI tends to underestimate the actual burden of climate change. Notably, the Delhi government's vulnerability assessment did not take the HI estimations into account. It suggested India reassess its climate vulnerabilities to stay on track for fulfilling the SDGs. A McKinsey Global Institute report showed that India could lose 2.5-4.5% of GDP by 2030 if the issue goes unaddressed.
