AI to slash music industry income by 25% by 2028
Artificial intelligence (AI) is expected to lead to a drastic pay cut for music workers, with nearly a quarter of their income at stake in the next four years. The prediction was made as part of a global economic study by the International Confederation of Societies of Authors and Composers (CISAC). It also predicted that those working in the audiovisual sector could see a pay cut of over 20%.
Generative AI market to surge, impacting creators' rights
The study expects the generative AI market to grow from its current size of €3 billion per year to an estimated €64n billion by 2028. While this rapid growth is expected to greatly benefit large tech corporations, it could also result in a major reduction of creators' rights and income streams unless appropriate measures are taken by policymakers.
Australia and New Zealand leading in AI policy development
CISAC President and former ABBA band member Bjorn Ulvaeus also highlighted the work done by the Australian and New Zealand governments in formulating policies to protect creators against generative AI. He called a recent report by Australia's Senate Select Committee on AI "encouraging and promising." Ulvaeus said these nations could set a global standard in AI policy, protecting creators' rights while promoting responsible technological innovation.
'It's creators who stand to lose the most'
Dean Ormston, CEO of Apra Amcos, said, "It's creators who stand to lose the most. Our industry thrives on human creativity. Our songwriters, composers, and music publishers are the heart of what makes Australian and New Zealand cultural exports so distinctive." "We must ensure strong protections for their work...so that AI platforms respect protocols and enhances rather than exploits First Nations culture."
Current regulations pose dual threat to creators
The study emphasized that under current regulatory frameworks in most countries, creators are vulnerable on two fronts. Generative AI models' unauthorized use of their works could violate earnings from copyright. Meanwhile, job opportunities could dwindle as AI-generated content becomes increasingly competitive against human-made works. By 2028, the study predicts generative AI music will make up around 20% of traditional music streaming platforms' revenues and about 60% of music libraries' revenues.
AI developers and providers set to profit significantly
The report also predicted that AI developers and providers in the music industry could see their earnings rise to €4 billion, a huge jump from €0.1 billion in 2023. Likewise, those in the audiovisual sector could earn an additional €5 billion in this time. However, this revenue is likely to be "derived directly from the unlicensed reproduction of creators' works," marking an economic shift from creators to AI companies.
